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Renewables looks for bright spots amid uncertainty

Policy uncertainty, potential tariffs, and interconnection queues will present challenges but will not stifle the US renewable energy sector, speakers said last week at the ACORE Finance Forum.

Speakers across several panels noted that energy demand growth, and the longer time it would take to build alternatives such as gas-fired plants or nuclear reactors, mean renewables will stay relevant.

“We’ve heard people saying, ‘Invest in renewables because it’s green,’” Ricardo Pereira, executive director and Head of Financial Advisory US at Santander, said during a 5 June panel on supply chain uncertainty. “This year, we are seeing: Invest in renewables because it is fast.”

The ACORE Finance Forum was held 4 June to 5 June in New York City, bringing together renewable energy professionals to discuss the future of the clean energy investment landscape. It was ACORE’s fifth year hosting the forum.

The industry has been pummeled in the first half of 2025 by both tariff threats and potential changes to tax incentives under the One, Big, Beautiful Bill, which passed the House of Representatives and is now being considered by the Senate.

“The reality is that the energy discussion in the US has become highly politicized,” Invenergy President and co-founder Jim Murphy said during a 5 June CEO spotlight panel. Some Republican-leaning states, he added, have aligned with anti-renewables rhetoric coming from Washington, DC.

“Permitting has been difficult. The grid connections have been difficult for a long time and continue to be difficult,” Murphy said. “And now we are facing a new challenge in the grid connections with queue jumping.”

The Trump administration’s mercurial approach to tariffs has made planning difficult for renewables firms, said EDP Renewables North America CEO Sandhya Ganapathy.

“Every day the rates change,” Ganapathy said during the CEO panel. “Every day the scope changes.”

But the Trump administration and the new power paradigm could also benefit the renewables sector, panelists said.

“There is a lot of what is being said in this new administration that will be helpful. Permitting reform and lessening of unnecessary regulatory processes would go a long way to helping move this industry forward,” Murphy said. “We are very keen to see a reduction in the ability of opponents, however motivated, to slow a project down through extensive litigation, ongoing years of opposition.”

GS Power Partners President Nick Sangermano said that many renewables firms survived adversity toward the end of the last decade. Learning to thrive in a more difficult policy environment could ultimately benefit the industry, he said.

“There is opportunity here to become more efficient,” Sangermano said during the supply chain panel, noting that projects in Netherlands are built at 30% lower costs than in the US. “There is opportunity for us to get to the next level of maturity in the business.”

M&A movement 

Meanwhile, mergers and acquisitions in the energy sector are accelerating as companies navigate shifting demand patterns, volatile pricing, and regulatory uncertainty, speakers said during panels on 4 June.

With coal-fired plants phasing out, natural gas and renewables have emerged as key investment targets.

“It’s been an incredibly robust M&A market,” Ray Wood, Managing Director and Head of the Global Natural Resources Group at Bank of America, said during a panel on harnessing equity investment.

Valuations for older gas plants have climbed as much as 40% in the last 18 months, signaling intense interest in established capacity, Wood said, citing anecdotal evidence.

The trend mirrors past industry shifts, notably the push in the late 1990s toward coal plant retirements. Today, surging electricity demand — driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing — has further strained the grid. Investors are chasing assets that promise stable returns as energy technology rapidly evolves.

Rising power prices have added momentum, Wood said.

“You’ve seen energy or spark spreads grow somewhere between USD 30 and USD 40 a megawatt hour levelized depending on the market,” he noted.

Capacity market rates in the PJM Interconnection have soared, prompting higher valuations for existing energy assets, Marathon Capital founder and CEO Ted Brandt said on the same panel.

As buyers reposition, recent deals such as NRG’s acquisition of LS Power’s fossil-fuel portfolio and Constellation’s acquisition of Calpine underscore an industry-wide push toward strategic consolidation, Brandt said.

Development challenges  

Energy developers are facing a sea change in project financing, regulatory challenges, and market conditions. As the industry shifts toward renewables and natural gas, developers must navigate rising costs and longer project timelines.

Developing an 800-MW project can require significant upfront investment, with at-risk capital reaching nearly 50% of the total cost before achieving financial investment decisions, Brandt said. This has made securing funding more difficult, as investors demand greater certainty in returns.

In recent years, base-load capacity has been favored over intermittent renewables, panelists said. Timing also plays a key role, as projects slated for completion in the near term have far greater value than those targeting the next decade. With power prices rising faster than inflation, developers are reevaluating risk tolerance and long-term viability.

Investors are debating whether the sector will transition from a subsidized industry to one driven by competitive market forces, Brandt said. If subsidies diminish, capital costs could increase, reshaping the landscape for development.