While US IPO filings typically accelerate in March, this year’s ongoing macro challenges and limited visibility on execution have contributed to an unusual pause in pipeline momentum that could affect the start of the second quarter.

For the first time since the COVID-19 period and at least since 2015 before that, the number of IPO filings in March 2026 fell below February levels, according to Dealogic data.

The slowdown comes despite what has otherwise been a strong start to the year. Issuance pushed through a difficult backdrop in the first quarter, as volatility linked to the war in the Middle East and a sharp sell-off in software stocks weighed on sentiment.

Even so, listings recorded their strongest start to the year since 2021, supported by a backlog of deals delayed by the government shutdown late last year.

This brio faded through March. “The software sell-off pushed the market into a wait-and-see mode,” said Shari Mager, KPMG’s US national leader of capital markets readiness, noting that activity slowed sharply in the second half of the quarter as both sector pressures and geopolitical developments unsettled investors.

Banks are cautious in their near-term outlook.

“Q2 is very hard to predict. We expected April to May to be busy back in January. Now, we may only see a small portion of that activity,” said Matthew Wolfe, managing director and head of technology ECM at William Blair. “There’s a widespread delay, particularly as the market anticipates some of the potential mega-deals to come to market. Processes are slowing, new processes are not starting, and in many cases the probability of getting something done this year is lower.”

Test-the-waters meetings are ongoing, with issuers using the period to stay engaged with investors and broaden their coverage, even as confidence around launch windows remains fragile.  These processes are increasingly extending beyond short, initial conversations into multi-stage engagements, often involving several rounds of investor feedback ahead of a transaction.

“Companies are using the downtime to build investor relationships. We encourage them to broaden their exposure, not just repeat meetings with the same accounts,” Wolfe said.

Several significant deals have already been pushed back. Blackstone-backed Liftoff, Kraken, Clear Street, and Motive Technologies are among companies that have delayed near-term plans amid market volatility and a sharp shift in buyside sentiment following the technology sell-off.

The companies on file that are closely monitoring include Pershing Square, Madison Air, Silver Lake backed-Relativity, Discord, Blackstone-backed Entrata, as well as Cerebras.

For many issuers, the focus has moved from timing a launch to preserving optionality. As companies complete audits and refresh financials, filings are expected to pick up again, even if launches do not immediately follow.

“You’ll see a lot of S-1 filings in the next few weeks so companies can launch after Easter and before summer,” one investor said.

The aim is to maintain readiness so that transactions can move quickly when conditions stabilize.

Some companies were targeting a post-summer window are now reassessing whether transactions can be completed this year at all, with timelines in some cases slipping into 2027.

Many technology issuers in particular are pushing timelines toward the back half of this year as they reassess positioning in light of rapid AI-driven change, said Ran Ben-Tzur, co-head of capital markets at Fenwick & West.

By contrast, life sciences companies are expected to remain active in the near term, reflecting a different investor base and risk profile, he said.

At the same time, investor demand has not disappeared.

Equity markets remain relatively strong, and investors continue to look for new opportunities. But the mechanics of executing an IPO have become more challenging, particularly in an environment where sentiment can shift quickly.

The SpaceX factor

June may provide an early test for the market’s ability to absorb large transactions. SpaceX is reported to have filed confidentially this week, potentially setting up one of the year’s most closely watched listings.

Views differ on how such a deal could shape broader issuance. Some expect a transaction of that scale to absorb investor attention and limit capacity for other deals. Others see it as a potential catalyst that could draw capital and interest into adjacent sectors, including aerospace and defense, as well as parts of the technology market perceived as less exposed to AI disruption.

A more constructive view suggests that strong, differentiated companies could still come through alongside larger transactions, particularly given the backlog of sponsor-backed names waiting to list.

Even so, execution remains the key challenge. An IPO typically requires about a month of market exposure, during which issuers are vulnerable to shifts in sentiment. In the current environment, that exposure risk is harder to manage.

As they wait, chief financial officers will be progressing regulatory processes and investor engagement while waiting for a window that offers sufficient stability.

Seasonal factors also play a role, as issuers navigate 10-K and proxy filings while assessing broader market risks, one advisor noted.

If geopolitical tensions ease and earnings season provides additional visibility, activity could resume relatively quickly. The pipeline, sponsor-backed and closely held alike, remains substantial, according to advisors.

Still, a recovery is unlikely to come all at once.

Instead, just like over 2025, issuance will continue in sudden, more-or-less decisive strokes rather than comfortable, extended streaks.

“We don’t know what markets will look like tomorrow, let alone in a month,” Wolfe said.