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Improving market conditions pull IPOs forward but volatility could ‘spoil the fun’ – ECM Pulse North America

  • Investors gravitate toward businesses that ‘make real things’
  • Amazon-backed nuclear reactor developer raises USD 1.02bn
  • Several software companies still stuck on the sidelines

US equity capital markets are showing high receptivity to new issuance at a time when many companies have moved forward with their listings this quarter.

A modest improvement in market conditions following a longer‑than‑expected March lull was enough for a growing share of issuers to declare clear skies ahead.

“The broader market has been remarkably resilient. We are back around all-time highs, volatility is in a comfortable place, and IPOs that have come to market have generally worked,” said Evan Riley, head of ECM Americas at BNP Paribas.

The rush to make the most of this window comes ahead of the launch of SpaceX’s mammoth IPO, as the Pulse previously reported.

“When you combine a constructive market backdrop, successful IPO outcomes, and concern about air traffic control in June due to potential mega-cap issuance, you get a pull-forward effect,” Riley said. “That is what you are seeing, including in the number of companies flipping public.”

The pickup in activity this April is visible in issuance data after a quieter March. According to Dealogic, nine IPOs came to market in the US, raising about USD 7.1bn. This was the highest monthly total so far this year. For comparison, April 2025 saw 19 IPOs raising roughly USD 1.6bn, while April 2024 recorded 22 IPOs raising about USD 6.1bn. April 2026 therefore delivered more capital than the same month in the previous two years, despite fewer deals.

Year-to-date through April, 43 IPOs have raised around USD 18.2bn. The amount of capital raised in the region has varied much more by month as rising volatility and the ongoing software sell-off impacted volumes throughout February and March. Over the same period last year, 79 IPOs raised about USD 10.5bn. In 2024, 66 IPOs raised about USD 12.2bn.

A chart showing IPO deal volume in dollars and deal count annually from 2015 through year-to-date 2026. The data excludes SPAC IPOs.

Much of the current issuance slate shows a bid toward industrial and reliable businesses, a contrast with some of the more speculative growth narratives expected from later mega-IPOs. Candidates with steady cash flows, durable assets, and limited exposure to technological disruption are front-and-center at a moment of industry disruption.

Madison Air, which listed two weeks ago, was the largest IPO of the year so far; the business supplies cooling technologies, including liquid and hybrid systems, used in data centers, a segment experiencing rapid expansion as artificial intelligence workloads surge. The company gained 17.59% on its first day, increased to 28.30% after one week, and is up 25.30% currently.

Among the most successful listings of the past week was X-energy. Shares in the Amazon-backed nuclear reactor developer surged 30.9% in their Nasdaq debut, securing a USD 11.9bn valuation for a business widely viewed as a potential future engine of the AI boom. The company raised USD 1.02bn on Thursday, selling 44.3m shares in an upsized offering.

One investor expressed enthusiasm for X Energy’s equity story, calling it compelling and positioned at the intersection of high‑conviction, long‑term trends that defy current market volatility. Businesses like these, often described as companies that “make real things,” offer a measure of reassurance amid concerns over AI‑driven disruption, the investor said.

In this sense, BNP’s Riley said there is clearly an “AI question” every issuer needs to answer.

“Some businesses are naturally insulated from disruption. Industrials fit that. HVAC, cooling, defense — those stories resonate. You are not seeing a flood of pure software issuers.”

He argued that is one reason industrial, aerospace and defense, and energy transition names are attracting support. “They are thematically relevant and investors have momentum behind those sectors.”

Returns from recent large US IPOs speak of a broadly positive performance. Arxis, a recent aerospace and defense debut, came with the strongest first-day performance, rising 38.39%, and remaining 25% above offer price, with a 29.50% gain after one week. Forgent Power, a designer and manufacturer of electrical distribution equipment used in data centers, the power grid and energy-intensive industrial facilities, recorded a smaller first-day increase of 7.41%, followed by gains of 22.33% after one week and 26.93% after one month, and is now up 30.15%.

A chart showing investor returns on five 2026 IPOs: Madison Air, Forgent Power, Arxis, Paypay Corp, and Janus Living. The charts shows returns of one day, one week, one month, and total as of 24 April.*chart does not include X-Energy, which listed on 23 April and has seen a return of 27% on debut

Meanwhile companies more exposed to the software rout prompted by AI advancements are still defining their next steps. Blackstone’s Liftoff Mobile has re‑entered the IPO queue, refiling its registration just two months after withdrawing a prior attempt, with timing and structure still to be determined. Silver Lake-backed Relativity and Entrata are among other names still on the sidelines alongside candidates such as Strava and Motive.

“If you look at the public comps, they’re mostly down,” said Steven Halperin, managing director and head of equity public markets at Moelis. “So, it would be hard to convince a company to go public presently off discounted valuations. Several of the public software subsectors we’ve been tracking have been under pressure.”

Uncertainty is far from disappearing. Peace negotiations between the US and Iran came to a halt over the weekend after President Donald Trump canceled a planned Pakistan trip by his top envoys. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting Tuesday, in what would be Chair Jerome Powell’s last, against a backdrop of high energy prices and supply chain disruption amid the ongoing Middle East war. At the same time, inflation expectations are rising and consumer sentiment has weakened.

Discussing the current political risk, Riley said: “The market is looking through it for now and assuming limited disruption. We have retraced losses, the VIX is manageable. But if we saw escalation and real volatility, that could spoil the fun.”

Issuers are trying to use the opening while it lasts, Riley said. “There is excitement, engagement, a seemingly strong window, and companies are trying to hit it. But ECM windows can change very quickly.”