• Start of 2025 likely to be the best for Oil & Gas ECM in years
• Trump administration, energy independence drive, a boon for industry
• Multiple energy companies prepare for IPOs

The oil and gas sector is expected to be a far more significant part of the US equity capital markets ahead of Donald Trump’s return to the White House for the second time.

Venture Global LNG, an Arlington, Virginia-based liquefied natural gas supplier, has set terms on an IPO that could raise USD 3bn at a USD 110bn valuation, in what is likely to be the largest energy listing in a decade.

In its IPO filing, Venture Global LNG said it aims to raise billions to fund major projects, alongside tanker and pipeline development, to expand its production and export capacity.

There are some risks for Venture Global from the new Trump administration, such as a potential 60% tariff on Chinese imports, which could trigger retaliatory measures and jeopardize Venture Global’s long-term agreements for 9.5m tons of LNG annually with Chinese buyers.

This eventuality could reduce US competitiveness in global LNG markets.

One ECM banker noted that, for investors, the IPO offers exposure to what is still considered a high-growth segment of the energy sector, with steady revenues and a key role in energy security.

Yet, its success will hinge on navigating trade risks and deploying capital effectively over the coming years. It is a high stakes bet on US energy dominance, and the ability of LNG markets to thrive amid shifting geopolitical tides, the banker noted.

A growing pipe

Venture will follow the listing of energy equipment and services provider Flowco, which serves the oil and natural gas industry, which priced a USD 427.2m IPO on January 15, above the range.

With Flowco, 2025 oil and gas IPO volumes are now at USD 427m from one deal compared to USD 578m from four transactions in 2024 and USD 929m from five listing in 2023. Should Venture Global be priced successfully, this month’s issuance will have already far surpassed any other year for the sector since 2017.

A build-up of deals in the sector started in September, with the IPO of natural gas producer BKV [NYSE:BKV], which raised USD 270m through a listing on the New York stock exchange.

“The momentum is strong,” said Doug Getten, a Houston-based Baker Botts partner whose team advised on the 2023 IPO of Mach Natural Resources [NYSE:MNR].

“Beyond regulatory pressure, businesses are scaling back their ESG policies. We’re returning to fundamentals, focusing on what makes money for investors. The past year has seen kind of a correction away from ESG,” he added.

While the Biden administration had moved to limit LNG exports, easing regulatory pressure under the incoming Trump administration now present upside potential, particularly given robust foreign demand, Getten said.

The ECM banker agreed that anticipated lighter regulation creates favorable conditions for both issuers and buyers. Several mid-sized exploration and production companies are preparing documentation for potential listings later this year, he said.

These companies are particularly focused on assets in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale, where operational efficiency and established infrastructure could attract investor interest.

Also in the IPO pipeline is natural gas developer Infinity Natural Resources, which is pursuing a US listing after nearly doubling its revenue in the first half of the year, according to an October filing. Backed by investment firms Pearl Energy Investments and NGP Capital, Infinity aims to list on the NYSE.

Still, the ECM banker noted most policies remain undefined and the market must wait for a firm direction from Trump’s new team. “Currently we’re dealing mainly with sentiment, and we’re all still awaiting concrete policy implementation,” he said. “What the administration’s action will actually look like remains to be seen,” he said.