Forvis Mazars and Mergermarket are pleased to present Investing in Southern Europe 2026.

The report offers an overview of M&A activity across Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Turkey, Portugal and Greece, examining regional, national and sector trends as well as the outlook for dealmaking over the remainder of 2026 and beyond.

Overall, Southern Europe saw 1,858 M&A transaction announcements in H1 2026, representing a 6% year-on-year decline. However, aggregate deal value surged by 37%, from €107.9bn in H1 2025 to €147.7bn. The figures point to an increasingly bifurcated market, with fewer but larger transactions driving headline activity.

Sylvain Rousmant, Financial Advisory Leader at Forvis Mazars in Italy, said: “Inorganic growth within each economic bloc tends to intensify in periods of geopolitical tension – advisers in the region are explicitly flagging stronger regional ties as a driver.”

Italy emerged as Southern Europe’s standout M&A market in H1 2026, with 754 deals announced, an increase of 6.5% compared with H1 2025. Aggregate Italian deal value more than doubled year-on-year to €87.1bn, representing 59% of Southern Europe’s total deal value in the period. Both volume and value reached their highest H1 levels in two decades of Mergermarket records.

Maurizio Galati, Financial Advisory Director at Forvis Mazars in Italy, commented: “Italy’s M&A market has genuinely earned its leading position – this isn’t a one-off spike. Domestic consolidation has been the backbone, particularly in banking. Confidence among Italian dealmakers has strengthened as financing conditions have eased and valuation gaps between buyers and sellers have started to narrow.”

Inbound picture

Inbound investment remained a key feature of the market. US bidders were the most prolific acquirers from outside Southern Europe, announcing 139 deals worth a combined €23.7bn. UK bidders announced 88 deals worth €23.3bn. Overall, bidders from outside the region generated more than €61.2bn of deal activity, accounting for around 41% of the region’s total M&A value in H1.

The region’s mid-market also continues to offer significant opportunities for strategic and financial investors. A total of 285 mid-market transactions, defined in the report as deals with announced values of between €10m-€300m, were recorded in H1, worth €22.5bn combined. Spain led the region in this segment, generating 106 mid-market deals with an aggregate value of €10.2bn.

“Against the rest of Europe, Southern Europe is a value play,” said Rousmant. “Regional mid-market multiples average around 5.3x EBITDA – attractive relative to Northern European and, especially, US comparables. That discount is exactly why US, UK and French capital is rotating in, and why intra-regional consolidators are active.”

Private equity focus

Private equity (PE) activity followed a similar pattern to the broader market, with volume and value moving in opposite directions. Southern Europe recorded 338 PE transactions, comprising buyouts and exits, in H1 2026, down 15% year-on-year. Aggregate PE deal value, however, climbed 23% to €48bn, underlining the impact of a number of large transactions. Five of the 10 biggest M&A deals announced across Southern Europe in H1 involved PE buyers.

Filipa Matias, Senior Manager of Transaction and Advisory Services at Forvis Mazars in Portugal, said: “Despite lower PE deal volumes, global PE investors remain attracted to Southern Europe because it combines quality mid-market companies, improving financing conditions and clear opportunities to build scale.”

Outlook

Looking ahead, the underlying fundamentals point to a positive outlook for M&A in Southern Europe. Financing conditions remain broadly favourable, the pipeline of succession-driven sales is strong and corporates continue to reshape their portfolios. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, energy prices, trade tariffs and the direction of monetary policy remain key variables.

The deal pipeline also indicates a potentially active second half of the year and beyond. Of the 608 Southern European “companies for sale” stories tracked by Mergermarket in H1, 126 related to consumer businesses and 114 to industrials & chemicals. Italy accounted for 237 of all for-sale stories, followed by Spain with 177.

“The most-closely-watched factor right now is energy prices,” said Christos Pitsounis, Partner at Forvis Mazars in Greece. “If geopolitical conditions prevent prices from easing, the resulting inflation could prompt further ECB tightening. Financing costs and valuations would come under pressure across the board. This is the variable most likely to determine whether deal flow broadens or stays concentrated.”

Further key findings from the report include:

• Regional hotspots. Italy was the region’s largest M&A market in H1 2026, with 754 deals worth €87.1bn, followed by Spain with 600 transactions worth €28.7bn. Switzerland ranked third with 221 deals worth €16bn. Turkey recorded 153 transactions worth €12.6bn, with aggregate value increasing 74% year-on-year.
• Sector focus. Industrials & chemicals was the most active sector by volume, generating 330 deals in H1 2026, while financial services led by value with €43.5bn of announced transactions. TMT generated €28.4bn and pharma, medical and biotech €19.4bn. Long-term structural themes including digitalisation, the energy transition, healthcare innovation and industrial transformation are expected to remain important drivers of M&A.