The total volume of private equity (PE) exits is gathering pace in France as buyers and sellers lean into a world defined by scale while seeking to adapt to a prolonged period of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, several French dealmakers told Mergermarket.

PE practitioners who gathered at IPEM, a European private markets industry forum in Paris earlier this month, agreed the pick-up was fuelling cautious optimism in a market that remains bound close to record lows, particularly from the buyouts perspective.

The need to return capital to LPs and raise fresh funds to back pressing strategic themes such as energy transition, AI and defence are also encouraging sponsors to light the fuse on some long-awaited exits, Simonetta Giordano and Jérôme Patenotte, private equity partners at Simmons & Simmons, told this news service.

The still significant backlog of assets acquired between 2019 and 2021 is supporting a 17% increase in PE exit volume in YTD 2026, which has climbed to a total volume of EUR 8.6bn versus EUR 7.3bn in the same period last year, Mergermarket data show.

Far from the cliché of rosé-fuelled summers away from the desk, French dealmakers have been busier than ever in the warmer months.

In July, this news service reported that 1H26 PE exits had increased by 7% compared to 1H25 with a total volume at EUR 6bn (53 deals). Fast-forward to today and volume has jumped 43% from there in just over two months, according to Mergermarket data.

The glass-half-full sentiment is further buoyed by solid deal count progress over the summer. While there have been only 75 exits in YTD 2026 (versus 96 in the same period last year), that spurt since end-June accounted for 22 of them – already outstripping the eight seen in the whole of 3Q25.

The long-awaited sales of Aroma-Zone and Idex injected fresh momentum into the French exit market over the summer, buoying both volumes and dealmaker sentiment.

Dealmakers are now, however, watching closely to see whether the rebound in exits will continue into 2026 against a backdrop of French buyout activity that – despite the summer’s shot in the arm – remains subdued.

Mergermarket data show that French buyout activity volumes for YTD 2026 plunged by 38% to EUR 6.5bn, with 146 deals recorded, versus YTD 2025 (EUR 10.6bn and 191 deals). The deal count so far this year is also the lowest since YTD 2021.

The days of easy returns are over. In a slower growth and more uncertain world, private equity firms must be far more hands-on, PE experts said.

“Creating value today requires creativity in deal structuring, multisector expertise, an established pan-European footprint and the ability to navigate regulatory obligations in several jurisdictions,” Bain Capital partner Matthias Boyer-Chammard, who leads French coverage, said.

The backlog of assets acquired in the peak years of 2021 and 2022 doesn’t always fit a traditional exit playbook given the uncertain macroeconomic context and heighten caution among investors, so firms need to think about carve-outs, spin-offs, non-core disposals and other bespoke solutions, he added.

Amidst protracted valuation clashes between bidders and vendors for French telecom infrastructure provider TDF, a piecemeal sale is now being studied after three failed sale attempts since 2019, this news service previously reported.

While talks dragged last year for the entire business owned by Brookfield, APG and PSP Investments, those vendors advised by UBS and BNP Paribas led bilateral talks for the carve-out of TDF’s broadcast business earlier this year.

“Buyers and sellers which have increasingly adapted to that complex and uncertain context understand there is no perfect window for exits. Therefore, success comes from preparation, patience, and a willingness to run highly tailored processes,” a Paris-based global private equity firm executive explained.

“In some cases, that may mean holding assets for longer than initially planned to continue growing the business and improving profitability before bringing them to market,” this executive added.

An example: after eight years, Ardian managed to complete the exit of French fresh food business specialist Prosol (owner of Grand Frais network) to Apollo amidst an obscure macroeconomic outlook last December. Prosol subsequently saw Copeba take a minority stake to sit alongside Apollo this spring as tensions in the Middle East already started to fuel inflation.

Political uncertainty, pressing investment opportunities

As for looming French presidential elections in spring 2027, this is one of several risks investors are navigating alongside geopolitical tensions and the inflationary backdrop driving European Central Bank interest rate increases, PE practitioners cautioned.

Businesses exposed to government spending or state influence may face a higher degree of uncertainty during the campaign, while sectors with more consumer-facing offerings are naturally more sensitive to potential tax changes which could follow, Florent Mazeron, private equity partner at Linklaters Paris, said.

For the broader market, however, election results are not expected to be a major deterrent unless they bring a material shift in tax policy, PE experts agreed.

Today, transactions take longer to execute as investors navigate a more complex environment also marked by greater regulatory scrutiny, including foreign direct investment screening (FDI) and European Union Foreign Subsidy Regulation (FSR) probes, as well as ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, Mazeron said.

That said, the underlying fundamentals remain solid. Many businesses are entering a new phase of growth and need fresh capital to invest in strategic opportunities – especially the aforementioned AI, energy transition and defence – which continue to create attractive investment themes, he added.

Large corporate firms which still drive French M&A activity will continue to look at opportunities to adapt to the new reality of AI, energy transition and political uncertainty, several market participants explained.

The context is the same for private equity firms – but, as previously reported by the news service, the time is ticking to avoid exposure to the 2027 election cycle.

M&A transactions aimed at strategics and sponsors reduce the risk associated with France cannot be ruled out. The risk of a protectionist anti-EU candidate winning the French elections next spring could have a dampening effect on dealmaking.

Which could yet have those in the M&A community downing their pens and reaching for that rosé – or something stronger.