It’s enough to turn you to drink. European wine and spirits producer deal counts have fallen consistently over 10 years, with even a flurry of larger transactions in the post-pandemic reverie of 2021 unable to arrest the decline.

Changing consumer preferences in pursuit of healthier lifestyles have been compounded by upheaval in the global trade settlement following US President Donald Trump’s embrace of tariffs since re-entering the White House. So far this year, there have been only 38 sector deals, the lowest haul since 1998, according to Mergermarket data.

“Industry concerns about the longer-term impact of changes in alcohol consumption, including increasingly widespread use of weight-loss jabs” are impacting the space, Brian Moore, corporate partner at Dentons, said.

While many lubricated their Covid-imposed work-from-home lifestyles with a drop of something decent, supporting Europe’s wine and spirits stock prices and aggregate M&A values in 2021, both have declined markedly alongside deal count as longer-term consumer trends asserted themselves. Global wine consumption fell 3.4% year-on-year (YoY) in both 2023 and 2024, according to the International Organisation of Vine and Wine.

Against that backdrop, share price falls for sector giants Diageo, Davide Campari and Pernod Ricard correlate neatly with the grim progress of deal count in the space.

Source: Mergermarket, data correct as at 12-Sept-25. YTD data through 12-Sept for each year shown.

Glass half full?

The main factor driving the thin deal count so far this year is US tariffs, Moore said.

Wine and spirits have been the subject of heated debate between the US and the European Union (EU) since US President Donald Trump’s tariffs assault on “Liberation Day” in early April 2025.

Drinks from Europe now have to pay a 15% baseline tariff on entry to the US. The EU may be pushing for a more favourable treatment of the sector, but this is the headline reality.

In a world where the United States has abandoned adherence to the liberal, multilateral order, only international corporations with the scale to “ride the waves” of trade policy turmoil are able to “drive stable shareholder return”, according to David Henig, Director at the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE).

The net result of Trump’s tariff agenda will be to strengthen large company dominance and reduce smaller players’ ability to mount competitive threats globally, Henig said.

It is precisely this coercion to seek scale that could represent an inflection point in European wine and spirits dealmaking.

Though arguably placing more weight on the dataset than it can reasonably bear given the thin crop of sector M&A transactions, it is true that aggregate deal value in 2025 has grown more than 3x over the same period YoY, to around EUR 536m.

Buyers have been selectively undertaking “bigger and better” deals, Moore said. This could be a leading indicator that dealmakers are leaning on scale as a way of securing regional advantage and guarding against uncertainties.

Regional consolidation was certainly the driving motivation behind Europe’s largest sector deal this year – Polish multinational food and beverage company Maspex Group’s RON 604m (EUR 119m) acquisition of Moldovan player Purcari Wineries. The target is one of the largest wine and brandy producers in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and the bidder wants to invest in recognized brands with a rich tradition and a strong leadership position.

The shifting trade policy backdrop also puts a premium on logistics and distribution capabilities.

In May, Swedish wine company Viva Wine & Spirits announced a deal worth EUR 69m to buy Netherlands-based European wine distributor Delta Wines. The deal will extend its reach in northern Europe and consolidate access to key retail and hospitality channels, it said at the time.

Portfolio pruning

While scale is vital in this environment, so is ensuring you have conviction in every part of your offering and can maximise the reach of marketing budgets by focusing international pushes on a coherent product mix.

This explains why corporates have dominated what activity we have seen YTD, with deals spanning wineries, distilleries, and distributors in markets such as France, Spain, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, the UK and Turkey.

Carve-outs by global players and selective disposals of single-market brands have all featured. The only sponsor-led deal in the YTD has been the acquisition of Cirelli by White Bridge-backed Italian winery Ulisse, which was announced in May.

In June, Italy’s Davide Campari announced the sale of Cinzano and Frattina to Gruppo Caffo 1915 in June as part of a portfolio optimisation strategy that involves shedding non-core assets to refocus on higher-margin spirits.

Campari — which owns the Aperol brand and has ridden the wave of excitement over the Spritz cocktail over the 2010s and beyond — found an excellent buyer in Caffo, which itself controls the iconic Vecchio Amaro del Capo digestif and is well positioned to leverage Cinzano’s heritage as a premium offering.

A gradual recovery in deal count will likely surface once buyers are comfortable that the period of flux over tariff rates is over, Moore said.

“It looks like we are now moving into a more settled phase, but there is still some caution out there,” Moore said. Volatility fatigue and a sense that Trump is more focused on the Supreme Court battle to secure his trade agenda are collectively driving optimism about the whole European M&A pipeline.

In the European wine and spirits space “we are seeing encouraging signs across the market and having a number of positive and ambitious conversations with clients,” Moore said.

There is some jockeying to grab acquisition opportunities in the coming months.

Finnish group Anora, which reported turnover of EUR 692m in 2024, is actively seeking acquisitions to expand its platform. Further to the south, Spanish wine makers Compañía Vinícola del Norte de España (CVNE) and Felix Solis Avantis are both on the lookout for targets.

Other situations to watch include Pernod Ricard, which is in talks to sell a champagne brand; and a potential spin-off of Moët Hennessy, LVMH’s wines and spirits division.

Sponsors could also re-enter the market if strategics capitalise on a lull in trade dispute headlines to focus on building scale: three companies have scores above 50 out of 100, according to Mergermarket‘s Likely to Exit* (LTE) predictive algorithm, making them potentially quaffable targets: Prosit, Groupe Frio, and Stock Spirits Group.

Moreover, Carlyle kicked off a strategic review into its 68% stake in Spanish wine player Raventos Codorniu earlier this summer; the group reportedly posted FY24 sales of EUR 232m, with EBITDA of EUR 39m.

Famously teetotal, President Trump has thus far been immune to lobbying from Brussels to lower tariffs below the headline rate on European Union goods. But if the trade position remains at least stable into 2026, M&A could yet act as the calming Alka Seltzer to the sector’s sore head and upset stomach.

*Mergermarket’s LTE predictive analytics assigns a score to sponsor-backed companies to help track and predict when an exit could occur through M&A, an IPO, a direct listing, or a deSPAC transaction.