• UK users of GLP-1 weight loss drugs expected to double to 7m by next year
• Due diligence on food producers likely to include company GLP-1 strategies
• GLP-1 strategy could be value creation opportunity for sponsor-backed assets

“European and UK food companies need to push GLP-1s up their agenda. Bloody fast,” says Robert Lawson, co-founder and Managing Partner at Food Strategy Associates.

The GLP-1 revolution is coming. Around 5% of UK adults, i.e. circa 3m Britons, are active users of GLP-1 weight loss drugs, according to a PwC report.

GLP-1s recently having become available in pill form in the UK, making them more attractive to users compared to injections, as such, the number is estimated to increase to around 7m users or 13% adoption by next year, according to Jacqueline Windsor, UK Head of Retail at PwC.

The shift will have widespread consequences for the consumer and retail industries as consumer behaviour changes. Not only in food, but across the board.

“You better start moving if you haven’t already,” Windsor says.

The drugs suppress appetite, and people on the medications consume on average 16%-39% fewer calories daily. This means that what they do eat needs to be more nutritionally dense, and in smaller portions, Lawson says.

Parts of the UK food industry is engaged, but far from all of it, Lawson says. While several UK supermarkets are now offering meal products targeted at GLP-1 users, many food producers are falling behind, he says.

“Companies coming up for sale will need to address this. Due diligence is likely to focus on this as an issue,” Lawson says.

The strong will eat the weak

Large, multinational makers of biscuits, chocolate, sugar, confectionery, and crisps already have a strategy.

Nestle has launched Vital Pursuit, a dedicated line of frozen meals for GLP-1 users, and is developing nutritional solutions for consumers focused on weight management.

Mars acquired Kevin’s Natural Foods, which offers high-protein, health-conscious meals, is looking to offer smaller portions and operational benefits such as protein and fibre, and has launched a “Hi Protein” version of its famed Snickers bar.

Meanwhile, Mondelez has long been in denial, claiming “people will keep eating Oreos” and estimating that in a decade from now, GLP-1s might affect 0.5%-1% of its volume. However, the company has developed a quarterly updated GLP-1-specific model.

Multinational giants aside, one sector banker seriously doubts that most family-owned mid-market chocolate and biscuit companies have a strategy for these fundamental changes.

“They’re going to get hurt. It will have a big impact in a few years from now,” the banker says.

The consequence could potentially be more M&A in the form of sale of distressed assets, the banker hypothesises.

“Companies will become less profitable, and the weaker will be eaten by the stronger,” he says.

Value creation opportunity 

For sponsors looking to exit food companies bought at high multiples in 2020-2021, having a GLP-1 strategy could be one road to value creation, the banker says.

The average EV/EBITDA multiple for European food manufacturers that transacted in 2020 and 2021 was 14.4x and 15.2x across 12 and 13 deals with disclosed EV/EBITDA respectively, compared to 10.6x for nine such deals this year so far, Mergermarket data shows.

Source: Mergermarket, data correct as at 13-Jul-26

Some stats from PwC’s report might shed some light.

Around 70% of GLP-1 users spend less on snacks and confectionery, and around 60% spend less on sugary drinks. Meanwhile, more than 50% spend more on nutrient-dense foods, fresh produce and high-protein options.

Emeram shelved near-term plans to exit German frozen finger-food producer Frostkrone, due to buyer-vendor valuation discrepancies, as recently reported by this news service. Similarly, Standard Investment postponed the sale of its Dutch juice and fruit drinks company Riedel, as recently reported.

Could a stronger GLP-1 strategy be the answer?

A sale process for Halo Foods, the UK producer of the low-calorie snack bar brand Skinny, fell through for a second time this spring, after exclusive negotiations with CapVest-backed Natra did not result in a deal, as recently reported by Mergermarket.

Skinny bars are “a low-calorie option in a world where people are looking for protein. It’s a difficult place to be,” a source tracking the situation says.

Source: Mergermarket, data correct as at 13-Jul-26

Consumer behaviour changing across industries 

Still, penetration of the drugs in Europe and the UK is anaemic compared with the US where 21% of households include a GLP-1 user, according to another PwC report.

This has meant that US food companies have been the first to experience GLP-1 drugs impacting the industry, and some are, therefore, further advanced in developing strategies to mitigate this impact, according to Lawson.

In the US, the medication is funded by insurers, while in the UK, it’s self-funded, and this could be one explanation, Windsor says.

But changing consumer behaviour does not only affect the food industry.

The medications change behaviour across a variety of industries, including alcohol, supplements, apparel, restaurants, and fitness, Windsor says.

Advisors that are working on restaurant M&A deals are looking at how to make menus more attractive to GLP-1 users, Windsor continues.

Supplements, skin care and hair care companies are developing products that counteract side effects of GLP-1s, Windsor says.

Such supplements include special formulations to support healthy weight loss, and collagen brands to combat “Ozempic face” and hair loss, a second sector banker says.

More collaboration, including partnerships, joint ventures, and M&A, between food companies and health companies is a likely future trend, says Inge Cajot, Partner in PwC’s Retail and Consumer practice. Vitamin drinks is one example, Cajot says – partnerships with telehealth providers is another, Windsor adds.