In a recent Ion Influencers Fireside Chat, Giovanni Amodeo sat down with Deborah Shire, Deputy Head of AXA IM Alts, to discuss the future of private capital allocation. With nearly 30 years at AXA, Shire brings deep institutional insight into the shifting dynamics of alternative investments. The conversation explored the evolution, current state, and expected future of private markets amid economic uncertainty.

Key Topics Covered in the Fireside Chat:

1. Growth of Alternative Investments

Shire highlighted a multi-decade trend of growing institutional allocations to alternative assets, particularly private equity and credit, now the two largest verticals at AXA IM Alts. These strategies have grown to $19.5B each within a $200B alternatives platform.

2. Cyclical Milestones in Private Capital

Institutional investors—especially underfunded pension funds—have shifted from high-return private equity to more diversified portfolios including infrastructure and impact investing.

3. M&A and Exit Environment Outlook

Shire cautioned that private equity exits may remain volatile over the next 18 months. While there was optimism earlier in the year, market conditions have tempered expectations. She emphasized the importance of being prepared for both tight and favorable exit environments.

4. Resilience of Infrastructure & Real Assets

Amid market fluctuations, infrastructure assets—particularly in renewables, digitalization, and electrification—have shown increased investor interest. Real assets with top-tier quality, operational improvements, and strong amenities are also seeing a rebound in transaction activity.

5. GP Landscape & Consolidation

Despite the surge in General Partners (GPs) over the past decade, Shire observed increased consolidation, with capital flowing to larger players. While new managers will emerge, the dominance of major GPs is expected to persist due to their scale, sourcing capabilities, and investor access.

6. Surge in Secondaries Market

Driven by the need for Distributions to Paid-In (DPI), secondary market activity is likely to rise across asset classes. Pricing remains robust, but Shire anticipates a shift in dynamics, particularly in GP-led secondary deals.

Conclusion:
The fireside chat with Deborah Shire provided a rich perspective on how private capital markets are navigating uncertainty through diversification, quality asset selection, and strategic adaptability. With growing secondaries, robust infrastructure deals, and ongoing GP consolidation, the private markets ecosystem is rapidly evolving.

Key timestamps:

00:07 Introduction to the Fireside Chats
00:37 Deborah’s Background and Role
01:21 Observations on Private Capital Allocation Cycles
03:00 Current Trends in Private Capital
04:09 The Importance of Diversification in Investments
05:23 Specialization in Private Credit
07:38 Partnerships Between Banks and Private Credit Providers
11:03 Successful Partnerships in Finance
14:04 Market Innovations and Liquidity Solutions
16:45 Key Factors for Allocators in Current Markets
18:31 Market Resilience and Opportunities
19:43 The Evolution of General Partners in the Market
20:58 Future of Secondary Market Activity
21:39 Conclusion and Closing Remarks