The election of Donald Trump to a second presidential term does not appear to have been a drag on trading activity for clean energy tax credits, operators of two credit transfer platforms told Infralogic.

Trump’s return to the presidency in January is expected to bring with it a sea change in federal energy policy away from the strong support for renewables seen under President Joe Biden. But buyers of clean energy tax credits that were strengthened by Biden’s signature climate legislation show no signs of anxiety their purchases are vulnerable to roll back or repeal under the incoming administration, said Katie Bays, a policy research strategist at credit transfer platform Crux.

“The election has not negatively impacted demand or pricing,” Bays told Infralogic. “Crux has observed increased, robust demand following the election — more than USD 3bn in bids have been placed since 5 November and over 80% of those bids are for future year tax credits.”

Bays said that accelerating demand for tax credits for the 2025 tax year remain in line with the platform’s pre-election projections.

As previously reported by Infralogic, activity in the tax credit transfer markets has grown rapidly since last year, when provisions of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act to allow sales of clean energy tax credits by developers to third-party buyers were first implemented.

The brisk pace of activity in transfer markets in November appears to reflect industry expectations that a full-on attempt by Trump to dismantle or undermine clean energy tax credit programs that were greatly expanded under the IRA are unlikely, particularly during the first year of the former and future president’s second term.

Despite those widespread expectations, there had been some concern that uncertainty surrounding the change in leadership could cause cold feet among some prospective buyers in the tax credit market, said Tao Mantaras, chief operation officer at Concentro, a credit transfer platform focused on transactions in the USD 1-50m range.

“On the buyer side, we thought we might see some hesitancy on existing transactions given the recent change in administration, but that hasn’t been the case,” said Mantaras.

Buyers considering the impact of new Trump administration policies on the credit transfer market are likely taking some comfort from historical precedent that cuts against retrospective changes in policy, said Bays.

“Congress is likely to respect the reasonable reliance doctrine, reassuring market participants that transactions based upon the law as it stands today will be respected,” said Bays.

Both Bays and Manteras pointed to change in law protections included in most transfer agreements as an additional layer of protection for both buyers and sellers in the transfer market. Such protections have become an increasing area of focus in deal discussions in recent months, Mantaras said.

“Any buyers that engage in any tax credit purchase right now are adding additional clauses to purchase documents that protect them from any changes in law. That’s almost a requirement now for these transactions,” said Mantaras.

While demand for credits for the 2025 tax year remains strong. Both Manteras and Bays said it is too early to say whether interest in forward-commitments to purchase credits for later years will be affected by the election.