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Toni Vainio, Partner and Head of European Private Credit at Pantheon Ventures, on an outlook on private credit and secondaries


Giovanni Amodeo hosted a recent ION Influencers fireside chat with Toni Vainio, Partner and Head of European Private Credit at Pantheon Ventures, to discuss the outlook on private credit and secondaries. The conversation covered a range of topics, providing valuable insights into the current state and future of private credit markets.

Introduction and Background: Toni Vainio, based in London, leads Pantheon Ventures’ private credit secondaries activities. Pantheon manages $68 billion in discretionary AUM across private equity, infrastructure, and private credit, with $8 billion specifically in private credit. Vainio shared his journey from being an investment consultant to leading one of the largest credit secondaries players.

Market Cycles and Key Events: Vainio discussed the significant market cycles he has observed, including the 2008 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2022 market sell-off. He highlighted how these events impacted private credit and the opportunities they created for credit secondaries.

Growth and Evolution of Private Credit: The conversation delved into the rapid growth of private credit, which has more than doubled in the last six years and is expected to continue expanding. Vainio emphasized the increasing turnover ratio and rebalancing activity within the AUM base, drawing parallels between private equity and private credit secondaries.

Investor Behavior and Liquidity Needs: Vainio explained the motivations behind investors’ liquidity needs, citing examples from various regions and types of investors. He discussed the strategic asset allocation changes and the tactical reallocation decisions that drive the sale of private credit portfolios.

GP-Led Solutions and Market Dynamics: The chat explored the adoption of GP-led solutions in private credit, driven by the need for liquidity and proactive portfolio management. Vainio noted the similarities and differences between private equity and private credit in this context, highlighting the evolving market dynamics.

Talent Acquisition and Industry Consolidation: Vainio addressed the challenges of finding talent in the credit secondaries market and the strategies Pantheon employs to build its team. He also discussed the impact of industry consolidation, referencing recent significant deals and the trend towards larger, more integrated platforms.

Future Outlook and Market Potential: Looking ahead, Vainio expressed optimism about the future of private credit secondaries, predicting continued growth and increased market activity. He highlighted the potential for the market to reach significant milestones in the coming years, driven by capital formation and rebalancing activities.

Conclusion: The fireside chat with Toni Vainio provided a comprehensive overview of the private credit secondaries market, offering valuable insights into its growth, challenges, and future potential. Pantheon Ventures remains at the forefront of this dynamic industry, leveraging its expertise to navigate and capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Key timestamps:

00:09 Introduction to the Fireside Chat
01:20 Toni’s Background and Experience
02:30 Market Cycles Observed in Private Credit
04:35 Lessons from Private Equity for Credit Secondaries
07:08 The Evolution of General Partners in Private Credit
08:00 Investor Motivations for Transactions
09:32 Strategic Asset Allocation Pressures
10:57 Growth in Liquidity Needs
12:26 Market Dynamics: Buyer vs Seller
13:59 Opportunities in the Credit Secondaries Market
15:07 Impact of Large Fund Raises on the Industry
15:45 Consolidation Trends in Asset Management
17:52 The Role of Relationships in Asset Management
19:27 Convergence of Investment Skills
20:41 Market Dynamics and Fund Management
22:00 The Role of Brokers in Market Growth
23:26 Future Projections for Private Credit
25:14 Conclusion and Industry Outlook