One exuberant day for equity markets was all that was needed for equity sellers to make hay while the sun shone last week.

And equity capital markets are likely to remain in a period of flux – with occasional bursts of opportunistic activity – for as long as tensions in the Persian Gulf continue.

European stock markets enjoyed their best day in 2026 on Wednesday (8 April) in response to a ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran the previous evening.

Straight after market close, sellers jumped into action.

Cinven, sold a 65m share block trade in Polish e-tailer Allegro to raise USD 445m and further reduce its stake in a business it has owned since 2016.

French sponsor HLD followed suit that same evening, disposing of a 4.42% stake in Paris-listed Exosens to raise EUR 145.35m.

Finally, also on 8 April, AMG Critical Materials printed a EUR 110.5m primary raise to fund growth opportunities.

These deals were representative of the ebb and flow of European ECM activity since the start of the war in the Gulf. Issuers jumped on brief periods of positive market sentiment to print accelerated transactions.

Private equity sellers remain active in this endeavour given the need to demonstrate an ability to return capital to LPs.

“Clearly any short-term positive sentiment helps the accelerated market and perhaps equity-linked market, as it will boost underlying share prices, but we are not yet betting on a full market reopening,” noted a one ECM banker.

“We have already seen in this conflict how quickly things can go south.”

A second banker added that while some sellers can move quickly on positive days for markets in the next few weeks, many are now prevented from selling given reporting restrictions on insider sellers disposing of shares in the run-up to the first quarter earnings season.

Source: Dealogic

War-weary market buckles in for more disruption

As soon as the ceasefire was signed on 8 April, doubts grew over its long-term sustainability. Continued Israeli attacks on Lebanon led to Iranian threats that it would prevent shipping from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

After peace talks between the US and Iran broke down over the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced a blockade of the Strait, further tightening the geopolitical chokehold around the crucial waterway.

This doesn’t yet change conditions for sellers in the accelerated market, given many are used to the ever-changing news cycles around the conflict. Green days on good news will mean trades, according to a third banker spoken to by Mergermarket.

The banker noted that many sellers will be keen to take advantage of any window they can, with many “kicking themselves” for having missed deal windows earlier in the year when markets were less turbulent and underlying stocks were higher.

Despite the US blockade, the current ceasefire technically remains in operation until 22 April.

Notwithstanding the ongoing turmoil, some new issuers have stated an intention to move ahead with listings, notably the Uzbekistan National Investment Fund (UzNIF), which filed initial paperwork for a listing in London and Tashkent on 9 April.

UzNIF’s IPO is likely to appeal to London’s large network of emerging and frontier market investment managers. Its niche equity story means there could be a chance of success despite broader market turmoil.

For larger IPO issuers seeking to sell equity to a generalist European investor base hammered by the conflict, it may be a harder pitch.

Even red-hot IPO issuers like Franco-German defence company KNDS may need to take current market conditions into account, according to an ECM banker.

“Even KNDS doesn’t look like a homerun at the moment,” this banker said.

“Investors have been really suffering in this environment and that is going to impact portfolio risk allocation significantly.”

With first quarter results just around the corner, investors will soon learn the commercial cost of the impact of the war on European businesses and their financial expectations for the rest of the year.

“I think we might be in for a painful earnings season,” one of the bankers said.

“People are going to have to give guidance for the year around a mix of higher inflation, rates possibly going up and growth going down.”

If a peace deal can be struck, markets can start to position for winners and losers across different sectors.

Even if a peace were off the table for the foreseeable future, markets could deal with a longer conflict if it was contained within the Middle East region without wider disruption to the global economy, some of the bankers told Mergermarket.

But in an environment of on-and-off talks and chances of a resolution no better than a coin-toss, ECM activity in Europe is likely to remain mostly accelerated and opportunistic for now.