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Success begets success as US IPOs warm up – ECM Pulse North America

IPO market participants are growing more optimistic, as several of April’s listing holdouts begin to trickle back to the market. While wider nerves haven’t dissipated overnight, sentiment has clearly shifted, and momentum is building.

Market indicators are encouraging. The CBOE VIX volatility index has fallen below 20, US benchmarks have recovered significant ground and large single stock swings are less frequent. Recent rhetoric from former President Trump, hinting at the possibility of reparatory trade talks, has also provided another dose of calm.

“It is important to remember that investors have short memories. There are only two emotions on Wall Street: fear or greed,” Daniel Klausner, head of public ECM at Houlihan Lokey, said. “Only a few weeks ago, it felt like the market was about to fall off a cliff. Now, there’s real evidence that the environment is stabilizing and the capital markets environment is constructive. That’s why we’re starting to see movement.”

The return of strong-performing IPOs is also helping reopen the window. “Success begets success,” he added.

The evidence is stacking up. This week’s standout debut came from eToro, which upsized its deal due to oversubscription and whose shares spiked as much as 42.8% on its first day of trading and closed 28.8% higher than IPO price at USD 67, valuing the Israeli trading platform at USD 5.5bn. The Nasdaq IPO saw 11.9m shares offered at USD 52, with the company raising nearly USD 620m.

The offering was boosted by BlackRock, who acted as a cornerstone investor and showed interest in up to USD 100m worth of shares, according to earlier filings. As previously reported by ECM Pulse, anchor and cornerstone structures, only rarely used in previous years, are starting to re-emerge to shore up deals in a more uncertain environment.

Chart showing ECM issuance by pricing.

The word circulating among investment banks remains “accommodating.” Issuers are learning more and more that this market, while improved, still demands flexibility on valuation. After a long stretch of post-IPO underperformance, companies and sponsors are being reminded of a fundamental dynamic: if you want the stock to trade well, you need to start at an appealing range and leave room for an uptick. It pays to be humble; eToro’s entry price was seen by investors as reasonable and compelling enough to make the leap of faith.

“We’re now in a much more accommodating, constructive environment,” said a banker close to the deal.

That view seems to be shared by IPO candidates that had postponed earlier in the spring. In recent days, fresh filings have come from MNTN and Chime, both of which notably held back in April. Digital health names Omada Health and Hinge Health, short of issuing major announcements until now, have been circling the ideal window since the start of the year

“As of two weeks ago, most of these deals were all on the backburner,” said another banker. “Now they’re turning into frontrunners. It shows just how quickly enterprising issuers can pivot when the opportunity presents itself.”

Importantly, this shift is also being driven – and even welcomed- by the buyside. “Investors are telling us, ‘Just bring the product.’ That’s the message,” the banker added. “There’s definitely more confidence in talks now.”

Even though tariffs and political risk haven’t vanished, the perception is that the market has changed. Windows like this, however narrow, are worth going for.