As parallels abound between the current US capital markets environment and the late-90s dotcom bubble, attention is also turning to contagion risk reminiscent of the 2007-2008 credit crunch.

Underneath the AI hyperscaling frenzy, American consumers – and the companies their spending supports – are hurting. Could First Brands and Tricolor’s collapse be a surer sign of broader corporate stress, rather than representing contagion risk related to a narrow set of fixed income asset classes?

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s new trade paradigm is creating a strong incentive for companies around the world to act to achieve scale and sharpen their focus.

Sponsors’ primary buyout pipelines could benefit, as family-owned exporters come to see the perks of joining private equity-backed platforms.

On the other, right-scaling can also involve asset disposals, spin-offs, and splits. Kraft Heinz, which is splitting into condiments player Global Taste Elevation and staples outfit North American Grocery, is an example of management teams opting for narrative simplicity in their equity stories.

John West, Mergermarket’s global commentary editor and author of our weekly Continental Drift column, joins Dealcast host Julie-Anna Needham to discuss how corporates can navigate the new trade realities, along with other macroeconomic risks and opportunities.

• What is the real impact of First Brands and Tricolor on capital markets pipelines?
• How strong are the parallels between the boom in AI investment and the dotcom bubble?
• Could M&A financing become more expensive even if the Federal Reserve cuts rates?

All this and more in this week’s Dealcast.