US equity capital markets have spent most of 2026 setting records, with no sign of a slowdown even as issuance climbs toward new highs.

With activity still running hot, attention is slowly turning to the midterm elections and what a contested political calendar might mean for a year that has so far had little use for caution.

Issuance has been particularly notable given where the market sits in the political cycle. Dealogic data shows US ECM volumes rose 62.5% year-over-year in the first quarter and 140.8% in the second quarter, making 2026 one of the strongest starts to a midterm-election year on record.

According to the data, fourth-quarter issuance has declined year-over-year in seven of the past eight midterm-election years, a historical pattern that could pose a headwind for US ECM activity heading into the November vote.

A degree of apprehension exists, but so far it remains secondary to bigger concerns. The midterms have been overshadowed by the Iran war and by interest rates, the two variables that matter most for a strong 4Q IPO market, according to JBG Capital Advisory founder Jeff Bernstein. A de-escalation in the Iran war looks unlikely in his view, while data showing rate hikes are off the table would ease investor fear and unlock healthier issuance conditions into year-end, he said.

Midterm anxiety may return in October, but only if the markets strongly feel that the Trump Administration or others are trying to either manipulate them or set the stage to invalidate them, Bernstein said.

There is also a comps problem drawing less attention than it deserves, Bernstein said. Strong S&P 500 earnings and revenue growth over the past four quarters owe a lot to easy comparisons: last year’s 1Q and 2Q were depressed by the initial shock of tariffs, when many companies froze new contracts. As those comparisons roll off and get tougher, the market will be leaning on corporate profitability, one of its biggest drivers this year, at precisely the point that driver becomes harder to sustain, he said.

Disruption tends to cluster in election week itself rather than the weeks leading up to it, said William Blair’s Daniel Polsky. “It usually doesn’t really stop because of the midterms,” he said, adding that some issuers may look to accelerate timelines to take advantage of current market conditions before that window arrives. The more interesting question, in his view, is not really whether the midterms slow the market broadly but rather which sub-sectors get hit once the political issues driving the cycle take clearer shape.

Expected volatility in the S&P 500 has historically climbed in the roughly 60 trading days before a midterm before fading afterward, while the index has averaged a 15.4% gain in the year following a midterm since 1950, according to Bloomberg and S&P Dow Jones Indices data cited by Ameriprise Financial.

Whether this cycle tracks that pattern, building tension into the fall before a cleaner run into 2027, or breaks from it entirely, as Polsky suggests, should become clearer as the election nears.

A cohort still waiting

Not all desks have abandoned a wait-and-see approach. There remains a group of companies planning to list after the midterms, though the logic behind it is questionable, said one New York-based ECM banker. Some issuers are also citing scheduling conflicts with the anticipated Anthropic and OpenAI listings as a reason to hold back, a concern the banker dismissed as misplaced.

“You’re not going to get alpha by investing in SpaceX or Anthropic if you are a small or midcap portfolio manager,” the banker said, arguing that small and midcap investors represent a distinct audience from whoever is chasing the market’s largest names.

Both listings remain moving targets; Anthropic is reportedly targeting an October listing on the Nasdaq, while OpenAI has more recently been reported to be pushing its own plans from this fall toward 2027.

The opposite pattern may dominate, instead. Most companies would prefer to complete IPOs before the election if they can, on the general premise that markets dislike uncertainty, according to Pegasus Tech Ventures founder and CEO Anis Uzzaman. He was careful to note that a change in political leadership would not necessarily mean worse conditions afterward, and pointed out that investors sometimes favor divided government, since legislative gridlock can read as a form of predictability.

The more immediate source of investor caution may have to do with the aftermarket performance of summer IPOs, more than the ballot itself. SpaceX is not the only IPO that has had a rough start recently, Bernstein noted. The forward calendar does have some very good companies on the docket where political outcomes mean less to their business, he said. This week, Blackstone-backed Jersey Mike’s will be a good litmus test for those types of companies, he said.

The post-Labor Day runway

Well before the midterms, a significant backlog of companies will be targeting the post-Labor Day window specifically, said KPMG’s Capital Markets Readiness leader Shari Mager. Issuers are looking to get to market before potential volatility and disruption from the midterms starts to weigh on companies still in the process, she said.

Among the candidates on the radar, UK-headquartered artificial intelligence infrastructure company Nscale is eyeing a listing as soon as September, having confidentially filed an F-1 with the SEC and begun testing-the-waters meetings with investors. Sierra Space, Vast Space and Axiom Space have each lined up lead underwriters for potential offerings once the holiday clears. On the consumer side, wearable makers Oura and food technology and delivery company Wonder are also in preparation, while iHerb and Just Salad are eyeing a window stretching from late 2026 into 2027.

Assuming macro holds up into the fourth quarter, issuers are working with a narrower runway than usual. History suggests the calendar concern may not be misplaced. Fourth-quarter issuance has been particularly vulnerable in prior midterm-election years, with only 2006 recording positive year-over-year growth.

After mid-October, there is roughly a two-week window between the midterms and Thanksgiving, then another two-week stretch between Thanksgiving and mid-December, one investor suggested. The compressed math, even more than fear of the election itself, may end up influencing how advisors are advising issuers on timing.

“I do think there’s going to be increased focus on, for some issuers, accelerating timelines to take advantage of the market that we have right now,” William Blair’s Polsky said.