Mexico’s equity capital market is likely to remain fragile in 2026 despite a few recent deals, according to bankers and analysts.

The reactivation of the Mexican stock market in 2025 following a long hiatus of initial public offerings has been driven by a combination of internal and external factors that improved risk appetite in the country, noted Juan Camilo Rojas, managing partner at Method Capital.

The S&P/BMV IPC Index, which measures the performance of the largest and most liquid stocks listed on the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, has accumulated a gain of nearly 18% this year. “The recent inclusion of BMV IPC futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has increased international visibility and attracted global inflows, strengthening the liquidity of the Mexican market”, Rojas pointed out.

On November 18, Esentia Energy raised gross proceeds of USD 457m with the initial public offering of 224 million shares at MXN 45 (USD 2.45) apiece. In the same month, Aeromexico announced the launch of its global offering, consisting of 11,727,325 American Depositary Shares (“ADSs”) in the US and 27,463,590 common shares in Mexico. In January, baseball team Diablos Rojos de Mexico made a direct listing on BMV.

Two real estate investment trusts (FIBRAs) have also turned to the equity capital markets this year. In July, Fibra Next raised USD 835m in a follow-on equity offering. In June, Mexico Infrastructure Partners (MIP) launched its FIBRA E instrument FIEMEX.

Despite showing tentative signs of revival buoyed by stronger earnings expectations and macro stability, Mexico’s equity capital markets pipeline is far from robust, both bankers and analysts said. The upcoming renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is expected to be a more decisive factor shaping new listings rather than regulatory matters, political volatility or foreign-capital outflows, the sources agreed.

The average valuation of companies listing on BMV has also decreased over the past years, which could ultimately discourage suitable candidates, noted Alik García, Deputy Director of Equity Research at VALMEX said. The BMV IPC’s average valuation multiples dropped from around 9x Enterprise Value/EBITDA in 2017 to 5.18x in 11M25, García said.

Meanwhile, in other Latin American bourses like Brazil’s B3 the current average valuation multiple stood at 7.97x EV/EBITDA as of 3 December, García added.

The bureaucracy and lack of agility in Mexico’s IPO processes could also have a negative impact on new listings, Aztlán Equity Management CEO Alejandro Garza noted. While a listing process in Mexico takes between six to 12 months, in the US and Europe such a timeframe drops to up to three months, he pointed.

The weak performance of certain stocks, such as Aeroméxico trading below its listing price, has also compressed valuation multiples for would-be issuers and cooled expectations, Alik García said.

Salvador Hernández, CEO at local IPO advisor AsApA, cautioned that recent equity capital markets deals have been driven mostly by very specific circumstances. The Diablos Rojos listing, for instance, has been primarily targeting funds from the baseball team’s fan base, he said. If listings and IPO processes continue at a steady pace over the next six months, then the market could begin to signal a more durable trend, he noted.

Potential Sectors

Despite the challenges, bankers and analysts see room for optimism as Mexico has avoided US tariff headwinds that hit many countries like Brazil. Mexico has also been increasingly viewed as a key beneficiary of USMCA reconfiguration, the sources noted.

Álvaro García Pimentel, executive president at Mexican Association of Securities Institutions, noted that the USMCA review could generate investment opportunities in sectors like industrials, energy and aviation. The country’s fiscal discipline paired with a stronger Mexico peso and the pull of nearshoring should add to the appeal, García Pimentel said.

The confrontational rhetoric and uncertainty brought about by US president Donald Trump earlier this year have also seen to stabilize, contributing to a perception of lower risk, said Aztlán Equity Management CEO Alejandro Garza. Nearshoring continues to be positive for export-oriented manufacturing sectors, he noted.

Family-owned businesses reaching the point where the family decides to give up equity control should also be considered potential candidates for IPO listings in 2026, Garza said. Private equity-backed firms could also take advantage of the country’s simplified IPO regulation, which was issued in January and allows smaller companies to register their securities through a faster, less burdensome process than a standard IPO, he said.

Companies in the basic consumer goods and industrial sectors could also be inclined to float their shares if consumption increases next year, noted VALMEX Deputy Director of Equity Research Alik García.