Go, stop and go

Global M&A volume rose 15.5% to USD 827bn in the quarter to date (24 March) driven by five mega deals in March. However, the number of transactions fell to a two-decade low, with 6,955 deals announced so far.

The uncertainty stemming from US President Donald Trump’s aggressive policies on tariffs, Ukraine and the Middle East has caused dealmakers to hit pause on sale processes, reassess business models and valuations.

Several multi-billion-dollar deals, in the works since Trump’s election victory last November, remain unsigned. Initially, his win sparked optimism for a ‘Trump bump’ in M&A driven by expectations of a more business-friendly environment, less regulation and lower corporate taxes.

But following his inauguration on 20 January, Trump’s tough tariff rhetoric has jolted markets, leading instead to a ‘Trump slump’. Still, optimism remains for a rebound in announcements in the coming months as the market adjusts to the new tariff landscape.

“We’re all going to be gasping for air until we get through the first quarter and probably a little bit beyond,” said Bill Curtin, global head of M&A at Hogan Lovells. “But then I think we’re going to settle into a very active rhythm.”