In the latest episode of ION Influencers’ fireside chat series, Lukasz Cyran, Partner at Innova Capital — one of Central and Eastern Europe’s most established mid-market private equity firms, now investing out of its €400M+ seventh fund, talked about the macro noise to uncover what’s really happening on the ground in CEE. Here are the key takeaways.

The Macro Story That Sells Itself

Cyran opened with a statistic that stops investors mid-deck: Poland now surpasses Japan in GDP per capita (PPP) — a leap few predicted a decade ago.

“When you look at GDP growth, we’ve been consistently at 3% or higher, while most developed economies oscillate between 0–1%,” he said. Add Europe’s lowest unemployment and a deep pool of engineering and IT talent, and the region’s appeal becomes arithmetic, not anecdotal.

But the real edge? Succession. Thousands of businesses founded in the 90s are now facing leadership transitions. Innova has spent 30 years building the local brand equity to be the partner of choice for founders seeking continuity — or a launchpad.

Reverse Brain Drain: From Silicon Valley to the Vistula

Is a talent war brewing? Yes — but Poland is winning it.

“The trend is reversing,” Cyran noted. Poles who cut their teeth at Google, OpenAI, and Snowflake are returning with global experience and founding AI-native product companies.

Poland’s developer reputation has long rested on IT outsourcing. Now, AI is flipping the script. The next wave isn’t services — it’s product-led, global-from-day-one businesses.

He pointed to ElevenLabs, the voice AI unicorn valued near $7B, co-founded by Poles. OpenAI’s core research team has strong Polish representation. One of Snowflake’s co-founders is Polish. These aren’t outliers; they’re signals.

AI Isn’t Just a Portfolio Theme — It’s an Operational Muscle

Innova isn’t merely watching AI trends. It has embedded AI across its workflow:

• Sourcing: An AI-native tool that scrapes the web for targets based on natural language queries — outperforming legacy PE databases.

• Due diligence: A proprietary triage framework classifying portfolio companies as Augmentation, Transformation, or Revolution cases based on AI disruption risk.

• Value creation: A tech advisory board featuring execs from SingleStore and DeepL, plus Bartek Pucek — an early ElevenLabs angel — advising on AI implementation.

“The key barrier for founders is know-how and access to AI-native talent,” Cyran explained. “As a fund, we can attract that talent and build an ecosystem where knowledge spills over.”

Innova is even considering a Chief AI Officer at fund level to coordinate across the portfolio.

Exits: Building “Must-Buy” Assets in a Chilly Market

With M&A muted and geopolitical clouds overhead, exit readiness requires surgical foresight.

“From day one, we ask: Who will we sell this to in five years?” Cyran said. Building for strategic buyers — not just financial sponsors — creates resilience when IPO windows crack open or secondary buyers circle.

The Polish stock exchange is rebounding, with successful listings and a building pipeline. Larger global funds are also eyeing the region. But the north star remains the same: build something a strategist cannot ignore.

The Elephant in the Room: Institutional Capital

Despite the growth story, one friction point persists.

“Why is there no institutional money in Poland?” Cyran repeated the question he fields from US investors. The answer: legislation. Polish pension funds are barred from allocating to private equity and alternative assets.

So far, Innova has relied on private capital — HNWIs and family offices. But until the regulatory dam breaks, the region’s most successful GPs remain underweight domestic institutional backing.

Rapid-Fire Predictions (2026–2027)

When pressed for short answers:

• M&A activity in 2026? Flat

• Exits? More

• Secondary activity? More

• Fundraising environment? Probably not yet improved

And the one tool Cyran wishes existed?

“A crystal ball for the next 12–24 months.”

Key timestamps:

00:07 Introduction to the Fireside Chat
00:39 Background of Innova Capital
02:04 Economic Trends in Central and Eastern Europe
04:16 Talent Dynamics in Poland
05:37 The Evolving Tech Ecosystem in Poland
07:07 Global Market Strategies for Polish Founders
09:56 Value Creation Strategies in Private Equity
11:20 Exit Strategies and Market Conditions
13:28 Impact of AI on Private Equity Operations
19:01 Sourcing and Origination in Investment
21:39 Investor Perspectives on the Region
24:21 Closing Thoughts and Future Outlook