• Year-end cohort faces more cautious investor base
• Several candidates push IPO timelines to 2026
• Medline’s IPO faces uncertain market

The post-Thanksgiving stretch is arriving with a more complicated backdrop for US IPO issuers than many expected.

Markets have lost altitude in recent weeks, and the patchy rebound after the holiday has not changed the tone.

Tech and crypto remain the weakest parts of the market, and risk appetite has not recovered its early-autumn strength. Any company that moves now will be doing so against a more cautious investor base.

Even Nvidia’s earnings could not stabilize sentiment. The stock rallied early, then reversed and closed lower.

Across the board, trading volumes have been thinner, and most of the moves came from a narrow group of large caps. Speculative assets remain well below their highs.

An ECM lawyer described the market as over-exuberant in places and said he remains worried about significant market or geopolitical events that could shut issuance down altogether.

As long as share prices hold up, issuers with public filings will try to move. “When the sun shines, you are inclined to make hay,” the lawyer said.

Thanksgiving week illustrated how easily activity can stall. US ECM volumes fell to their lowest level in 36 weeks, with only two rank-eligible transactions and roughly USD 345m issued. The previous week produced 21 trades worth USD 6.7bn.

Several issuers are still preparing to launch. Once Upon a Farm continues to work toward a launch this month, but has the flexibility to postpone if the market deteriorates.

Digital wealth management platform Wealthfront filed an S-1 amendment with the SEC, planning to raise USD 485m in an IPO by selling 34.6m shares. Cardinal Infrastructure also aims to raise up to USD 253m in its listing.

Other candidates that had previously targeted the fourth quarter are increasingly accepting that January is a cleaner path. Klook, the Softbank-backed online travel platform, now expects to list in early 2026 rather than before year-end and sees the holiday season as a period when demand for new listings tends to weaken. BDT & MSD-backed EquipmentShare is also pushing its timeframe into the new year, this news service reported this week.

One investor who had been tracking the calendar closely expected a maximum of three or four IPOs to launch in the first week of December and said the rest of the pipeline would likely slip further. The week of December 8 is workable, the investor noted, but not ideal for securing strong buy-side participation.

Companies that are ready have already flipped to public status and are waiting for a moment when demand looks stable enough to support a launch.

Medline remains the most closely watched name. Recent press reports indicate the company is preparing to begin marketing as soon as next week and is seeking up to USD 2bn from cornerstone investors ahead of book-building.

One banker said the buy-side knows the equity story well enough to support a tight roadshow but also warned that attempting such a large deal in December carries real risk.

A successful outcome for Medline would help anchor sentiment for the new year, but the company, which has postponed several times, has room to wait if the conditions in the next ten days prove too patchy.

“This year has been about walking again after near-paralysis,” said Kaush Amin, managing director and head of private markets investing at US Bank. He noted that the IPO index had climbed to a high of roughly 22% in September before fading and now sits at about 6%, still well below the broader S&P 500’s year-to-date gain of more than 16%. The shutdown created uncertainty as the SEC stopped reviewing new listings, he said, adding that the run-up to the holiday period will naturally drain attention.

The pipeline is healthy, and there is a growing consensus regarding a Fed rate cut this month, which could lead to a constructive backdrop. The question is whether the market can support more than a handful of deals before investors close their books.

One ECM banker said the calendar mechanics point in the same direction. Companies not already on the road are unlikely to make it out before the holidays, he noted, and he expects more activity in the first six weeks of 2026 than in prior cycles.

“It’s mostly a 2026 story now,” Amin said.