• Political, regulatory, and geopolitical uncertainties curb bold moves
• Former PDVSA executives already eyeing opportunities
• Investment firms also readying their checkbooks

Global energy firms are eyeing Venezuela’s potential after the country’s leader Nicolás Maduro was deposed, but the sources contacted by this news service remain cautious, with no immediate investments planned until domestic leadership and the US’ role become clearer.

Shares of several oil and gas firms surged after US commandos captured Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on 3 January. Still, political, regulatory, and geopolitical uncertainties limit bold moves, especially in M&A, said Julian Tonioli, CEO of Auddas, a Brazilian financial advisory firm.

US President Donald Trump, for instance, decided to back Maduro’s Vice President Delcy Rodríguez to lead a temporary Venezuelan government instead of opposition leader and recent Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado.

“The question is to what degree can the US use its leverage to get the regime to do exactly what it wants, either in business or in other areas,” said Evan Ellis, a Latin America research professor at the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. “There’s a big difference between calling the shots and running the show.”

More broadly, the unilateral capture of a sitting head of state like Maduro – though his authority was not recognized by the US – could reshape investment appetite across Latin America, trigger geopolitical realignments, and heighten legal scrutiny of oil, gas, and infrastructure contracts, Tonioli said.

But despite all this, there are still companies and investors looking for ways to invest in Venezuela’s energy sector once the dust settles.

Interest builds

A Canadian lawyer who works with several former executives of Venezuela’s national oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), said he has already received phone calls from clients enquiring about ways to reinvest in Venezuela, which according to its current government has around 300 billion barrels of proved reserves, making it the world’s largest oil bounty.

Some of these former executives – fired by Maduro’s mentor and predecessor, Hugo Chávez, in 2002 – own or head upstream outfits in Colombia, Canada, and other countries, and have long awaited a return to their homeland, the Canadian lawyer said.

Former PDVSA executives, for example, launched what is now known as Frontera Energy, which at one point was the largest private oil and gas company in Colombia.

According to the lawyer, one key reason for Venezuela’s sharp decline in crude production under Chávez and later Maduro – beyond the lack of capital investment – is the loss of expertise. “The guys that knew the country’s oil and gas sector inside out were fired and emigrated elsewhere,” he said.

Infrastructure first

The clearest investment opportunity lies in Venezuela’s energy infrastructure – dilapidated and mismanaged, yet still functional – a Venezuela-based lawyer said. However, if the country swiftly transitions to a democratically elected government, M&A prospects could expand beyond energy into real estate, telecom, pharma, retail, and more, the lawyer added.

“Venezuela needs everything: money, technical staff, roads, bridges, electricity, new copper wires, new rigs, and an active policing to make it safe to work,” said a former executive with experience at several Latin America-focused oil and gas companies.

Those likely to be the first to venture back into Venezuela are entities with a high appetite for risk, strong prior exposure to Latin America’s oil and gas sector, and the capacity for international dialogue, Auddas’ Tonioli said.

Intrepid movers

In neighboring Brazil, a company that seems to fit that profile is J&F Investimentos, a São Paulo–based, family‑owned private investment holding company founded and led by the Batista family, Tonioli said. J&F did not reply to a comment request.

Another Brazilian investor that might be lured into Venezuela is Starboard Partners, he added.

Maha Capital (formerly Maha Energia), a company listed in Stockholm and on Nasdaq and backed by São Paulo–based Starboard, holds a USD 5m call option to acquire a 24% stake in PetroUrdaneta. The latter is a joint venture between PDVSA and Odebrecht E&P that operates three fields in the Maracaibo Basin in northwestern Venezuela. The call could be exercised in May, Maha Chairman and Starboard Managing Director Paulo Thiago Mendonça told this news service. “Starboard is waiting for the US policy direction to decide how to proceed regarding the call option,” he said.

(In 2018, Apollo Global Management acquired a minority stake in Starboard.)

Elliott Management, which has recently made a strong push into oil and gas, could also be an early mover into Venezuela, the Canadian lawyer said. Last November, an Elliott affiliate – Amber Energy – won the court-supervised auction for PDVSA’s US-based refinery business Citgo, with a winning bid of USD 5.9bn. The acquisition, however, has not yet closed as it still requires approval from the US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), and is subject to potential appeal by Venezuela’s government.

Another potential early mover could be Amos Global Energy Management (AGE), a fund run by retired Chevron executive Ali Moshiri. The Financial Times earlier this week reported that Houston-based AGE is working to raise USD 2bn to invest in Venezuelan assets. The fund has already identified potential targets and is in talks with institutional investors about the potential investment opportunity, the report added. “I’ve had a dozen calls over the past 24 hours from potential investors. Interest in Venezuela has gone from zero to 99%,” Moshiri told the Financial Times.

Recent precedents

In February 2025, AGE tried to acquire Sinopec’s oil and gas interests in the Gulf of Patria area offshore Venezuela for an undisclosed amount. The deal fell through because it could not secure a license from the Biden administration.

And even when companies successfully acquire assets or secure oil production contracts in Venezuela, it does not guarantee immediate profits, as exemplified by LNG Energy and New Stratus Energy, said the Canadian lawyer.

In January 2024, New Stratus Energy acquired a 40% stake in Petrolera Vencupet, which held rights to six fields in Eastern Venezuela. However, the Canadian company – led by a former PDVSA executive and co-founder of Frontera Energy – exited that investment because PDVSA failed to pay for the barrels of oil it produced, said Jorge Neher, a Venezuelan energy-focused partner at Dentons Cardenas-Cardenas, who advised New Stratus on the deal.

LNG Energy, for its part, was awarded two Productive Participation Contracts (CPPs) in April 2024 to develop hydrocarbons in Venezuela but is likely not executing work programs on them, added Neher, who also advised LNG Energy.

What next?

According to the Canadian lawyer, the most immediate business opportunity lies in workovers – extracting more oil from small, producing fields. In that respect, oilfield services firms and wildcatters are well positioned to capitalize on this trend, the lawyer added.

“Venezuela is full of those kinds of fields – productive fields that need capital investment in infrastructure and a decent management,” Neher said. One could acquire an oil and gas contract for USD 10m and immediately start producing 1,000 to 2,000 barrels per day, he added.

The Trump administration, however, could leverage OFAC – which does not require additional approvals to issue licenses – to push non-US companies like Spain’s Repsol and Italy’s ENI out of Venezuela, the Venezuela-based lawyer said. The US government does not seem to be a fan of its Spanish counterpart, the lawyer added.

Repsol and ENI are joint operators of Cardon IV, which produces gas from Venezuela’s offshore Perla field. The companies’ US export licenses were revoked in March 2025.

China and Russia could also be squeezed out of Venezuela’s oil and gas sector if US or Western companies gain a dominant position in the country, the Venezuela-based lawyer said.

More than 80% of Venezuela’s recent oil exports went to China, Jean-Paul Prates, former CEO of Brazilian national oil company Petrobras said earlier this week during a webcast.

Venezuela’s debt to Chinese companies and banks is being paid with oil, however, if the US forces the South American country to halt any other oil exports to China, it would not be entirely detrimental for Venezuela as those barrels are sold at a steep discount, Neher said. “[It] creates a Catch-22 for Venezuela.”

On 6 January, Trump said in a social media post that Venezuela would turn over to the US 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil, which would be sold at market price. The South American country reportedly has over 30 million barrels of crude in storage that remain unsold due to a partial US embargo.

Ellis, the Latin America research professor, noted that the Trump administration appears to be prioritizing US companies and investors, positioning them to capitalize on the current circumstances to strengthen a foothold in Venezuela’s oil and gas sector. “Chevron is the one contracting tankers to take delivery on the sanctioned oil… but non-US players… are not part of any new special deal.”

Last July, the Trump administration granted Chevron a new license to resume pumping oil in Venezuela after the Biden administration revoked an earlier license as part of its effort to force Maduro to resign.

And yet, “the reconstruction of Venezuela’s oil industry cannot take place while the current regime remains in power, as any oil company or investor considering participation in the sector requires at least basic guarantees for investment protection,” said Dentons Cardenas-Cardenas’ Neher.