Here at Dealspeak EMEA, we might not have a crystal ball, but we do have the next best thing: access to Mergermarket’s Trendspotter series. These in-depth articles provide us with good answers to the question on everyone’s lips around this time: What are the big deals to watch in 2024?

Deals would be welcome following a dire 2023. EMEA M&A volumes were EUR 689bn, down from EUR 988bn in 2022, according to Mergermarket data.

While last year’s low deal volumes disappointed, driven by a slow-down in private equity (PE) activity, some sectors came through the storm in better shape, particularly healthcare.

Valuation gaps are narrowing in the European healthcare sector, which had a hot year. Healthcare volumes were EUR 79.5bn up 40% from 2022.

One company to watch this year is sponsor-backed Echosens, which has a score of 57 out of 100, according to Mergermarket‘s Likely to Exit (LTE) predictive algorithm.*

The company, which makes diagnostic equipment for liver disease, told this Mergermarket in November that it is receiving inbound interest.

Alongside healthcare, the fast-paced fintech sector and the staid world of financial institutions could finally arrive at their long-awaited convergence in 2024. Europe’s banks are increasingly likely to buy up tech-based and mobile-first challenger bands.

Wealth tech is particularly attractive for banks. Sponsor-backed Harvest is a name to watch. It has an LTE score of 57 after Five Arrows Principal Investments appointed Arma Partners to run a sale in October.

Prediction is hard, particularly about the future 

M&A practitioners in Europe’s largest markets are girding their loins for what they hope will be a better year than 2023. Dealmakers in Germany have a backlog of deals this New Year, with a particular focus on innovative family-owned companies.

One name to watch in Germany is Zentrum Gesundheit, a sponsor-backed operator of eye clinics with an LTE score of 63.

Meanwhile, PE activity is set to dominate the UK in 2024. Public-to-private (P2P) deals are likely to be a theme, as they are in the European consumer sector as well as in the Nordics.

An sponsor exit to watch is business intelligence company Argus Media, which has an LTE score of 61 after Mergermarket broke news in September that its sponsor Hg could explore a stake sale.

Companies with the Top LTE score in EMEA:

All LTE scores in table correct as of 4 January

VDR providers shine light in dark

A strong forward indicator for M&A has always come from providers of virtual data rooms (VDRs).

Normally vendors open a VDR around six months before a deal is announced. This gives VDR providers a unique oversight on what the future will hold, which Mergermarket tracks in the twice-yearly VDR Insight column.

In the latest edition, VDR platform providers said they are moderately bullish on New Year activity globally. Volumes have been resilient overall. There was a spike in volumes of new VDRs in the UK and the Nordics around October, suggesting a possible jump in deals in these markets around April.

Finally, any predictive column should probably mention black-swan events, which are defined by author Nassim Nicholas Taleb as rare events with an outsized impact that are hard to predict based on the currently available information.  Will there be any this year? Fortuna caeca est!

*Mergermarket’s LTE predictive analytics assign a score to sponsor-backed companies to help track and predict when an exit could occur through M&A, an IPO, a direct listing or a deSPAC transaction. 

Did you see last week’s Dealspeak EMEA? 

Out of darkness? Dealmakers wait for break in cloud cover