Tariff uncertainty, geopolitical volatility and a fast-evolving consumer landscape have driven this year’s trend of boardrooms pursuing bold moves to capitalise on long-term themes and position for the future. With an easing rate environment and a period of relative stability in October, this activity accelerated amid a sense that deals need to be struck before the tide turns.

Some nine mega-deals (with a deal value (DV) above USD 10bn) were announced in October, with three healthcare situations in the mix. Executives seem convinced that striking big ticket transactions to facilitate future growth will provide corporates with the scale needed to navigate macro volatility.

The USD 40bn Aligned Data Centers deal was the latest swoop in the race to capture resources to fuel future AI growth. With Nvidia and Microsoft included in the AI Infrastructure Partnership bidding group alongside BlackRock, this underlined the theme of sector convergence between AI and infra players. After this morning’s announcement that Kimberly-Clark plans to take over Kenvue in a USD 49bn deal, this will be ranked the fifth largest transaction year-to-date and was the largest deal in October.

However, the background music of concerns around AI’s bubbly valuations is growing louder.

Though average deal sizes for AI M&A in North America jumped 2.2x in 2025 to USD 168m, from USD 75m a year earlier, the sustainability of capex commitments to build compute and layoffs at Amazon and Meta are making some market watchers nervous.

October saw significant activity in the healthcare, finance, telco and consumer sectors, with the trend of corporate right-scaling boosting consolidation activities for boards pursuing thematic resilience. Some notable transactions included Blackstone and TPG’s USD 18.3bn bid for Hologic, Fifth Third Bancorp’s all stock USD 10.9bn bid for Comerica, as well as Kering’s USD 4bn sale of its beauty unit to L’Oreal.

With financing conditions remaining accommodative despite some private credit jitters, sponsor activity was strong in October, for both buyouts and exits.

Exits recorded the highest deal volume so far this year in October, up 164% from last month, led by the aforementioned Aligned Data Centers deal, which saw Macquarie Asset Management on the sellside. Big tickets enabled by consortia transactions and co-investing LPs named in releases remain a feature of the market in the higher-for-longer rate environment. Though it’s worth noting Hologic’s equity component appears to have come in at a more traditional level (34/66 equity/debt) following September’s blockbuster Electronic Arts deal; the largest LBO on record that had an inverse equity/debt split, at 66/34.

On the execution front, an unscheduled challenge has emerged for US dealmakers navigating regulatory approvals. While there’s been a renewed openness to remedies as a path to clearance, the ongoing government shutdown has left the Federal Trade Commission operating at just 50% capacity and the Department of Justice at 60%. With the shutdown entering uncharted territory, dealmakers face a difficult choice: delay filings until agencies are fully operational, or proceed without the ability to engage with regulators – potentially flying blind on critical questions.

Going into November, there is already strong dealmaking momentum, with that Kenvue transaction setting the tone for the month. However, with sticky inflation, private credit concerns, and the never-ending geopolitical and regulatory twists we’ve already seen in 2025, the 4Q deal rush is shaping up to be not only a sprint but also a high-stakes obstacle course.

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