While infrastructure investors have reasons to be upbeat in 2026, after M&A, greenfield and refinancing activity grew robustly in 2025, even the hottest sectors like digital infrastructure hide plenty of pitfalls. Infralogic’s EMEA team highlights opportunities and challenges for the new year.

Dealmaking in EMEA was up by nearly 40% in 2025, as Infralogic recorded USD 600bn of infrastructure and energy transactions closed in the region last year, including M&A, greenfield and refinancing deals.

The most positive news came from the debt markets, where liquidity from banks and institutional investors remains plentiful.

Some USD 386bn of debt financing transactions closed during the year across EMEA, up by 30% and reaching an all-time record. Refinancings in particular soared by 72% to hit USD 148bn.

M&A has meanwhile been recovering, with deal volumes tracked in the EMEA league tables rising by 18% to USD 156bn in 2025, although this is still far from a peak of USD 196bn in 2022.

The overall rosy picture masked sharp differences between sectors, however.

In digital infrastructure, for example, data centre M&A volumes more than tripled to USD 15.5bn last year thanks to soaring demand for data, and asset valuations remained high. Meanwhile, annual investment in greenfield project-financed data centres has risen four-fold since 2021, to reach USD 6bn in 2025.

On the other hand, the fibre market grappled with a multitude of issues. M&A in the sector crashed to just USD 4.6bn in 2025, less than a quarter the average annual volumes of around USD 20bn seen over the previous five years. New investment committed to greenfield projects plummeted from USD 12bn in 2021 to less than USD 1bn last year.

Against this backdrop, Infralogic’s EMEA team picked seven trends that are likely to shape the market in 2026, focusing on digital, transport and social infrastructure. (A separate article will look at trends in the power, renewables and energy space).

Data centre investors shrug off AI bubble concerns

By Talya Misiri

Infrastructure investors are dismissing fears of an AI bubble and predict continued investment appetite for data centres across EMEA.

Nearly 100 GW of new data centres will be added globally between 2026 and 2030, according to a new report from JLL, which estimates that this expansion will require USD 3trn of capital.

Industry players believe sources of funding will increasingly diversify to meet the growing demand for capital. To support large-scale buildout requirements, investors are increasingly using layered capital strategies that blend long-term financing with available cash flow.

Felipe Morenés, co-founder of data centre investor Stoneshield Capital, expects to see “data centre platform transactions for capacity scale-up, followed by joint ventures with operators and sale-and-leaseback deals” among investment structures.

“Build-to-suit developments backed by hyperscalers will likely remain active too,” he adds.

Single-asset project-financings are likely to grow ever larger, and are set to be complemented by other strategies such as equity stake sales in yieldco vehicles, and asset-backed securitization (ABS) for broader portfolios.

The groundwork to diversify financing efforts in Europe was laid out in 2025. Brookfield-backed Data4 took the yieldco route, selling a 30% stake in a portfolio of stabilised assets to Arjun Infrastructure. DigitalBridge-backed Vantage Data Centers instead agreed the first-ever euro-based data centre ABS in continental Europe.

Oaktree’s Pure Data Centres meanwhile pushed the boundaries of how much debt can be raised for greenfield data centres in Europe, raising EUR 1.85bn for their hyperscale campus in the Netherlands.

As deals grow bigger, Charles-Henri Larreur, managing partner at advisory firm Virellian Partners, expects to see investors combining different strategies.

“Demand for data centre financing is so large that we may see operators and platforms exploring more than one funding option at the same time,” he says.

Future financings might also not only cover brick and mortar (and power infrastructure), according to industry participants, but also chips to be housed in the facilities.

As long as cash flows are contracted, infrastructure funds and lenders will continue to pour capital into the sector.

UK fibre consolidation to gather pace

By Rory Gallivan

Large-scale consolidation among infrastructure fund-backed UK alternative fibre network providers, or alnets, has been predicted for years, but has yet to begin in earnest.

In 2025, the UK’s largest altnet, Antin-backed CityFibre bought its smaller peer Connexin, with 80,000 premises passed, while Oaktree’s Zzoomm merged with Basalt’s FullFibre to create a player covering 600,000 premises and Aviva merged its Truespeed and County Broadband, resulting in a company with 177,000 premises passed.

The biggest deal so far was in 2024 – the merger of DigitalBridge-backed Netomnia and Advencap-backed Brsk, creating a network with 1.5m premises.

Differing views over valuations have been a major obstacle to consolidation, with buyers unwilling to pay a price that does not result in shareholders in target assets taking a haircut, while merging altnets can also be very technologically difficult.

But some developments in the market in 2025 could pave the way for major deals this year.

One of these is CityFibre’s GBP 2.3bn financing deal announced in July, which included a GBP 800m accordion facility to raise acquisitions. Meanwhile Infracapital’s rural operator Gigaclear, which covers some 600,000 premises, is working with Rothschild to find a buyer, in a process led by its lenders.

And major deal activity has already kicked off in 2026, with distressed debt specialist FitzWalterCapital picking up London-focussed G.Network for GBP 50m in a deal that wiped out its shareholders USS and Cube Infrastructure Managers and a large chunk of the debt.

A merger with other altnets had been explored and this still could be the ultimate outcome for G.Network – and other distressed peers.

“Distressed situations are likely to play a role in consolidation, with a third party who is willing to be brutal with the lenders cleaning things up and then making the altnet more attractive to a strategic buyer,” says TMT strategy and policy advisor Robert Kenny.

​​​​UK PPP renaissance faces 2026 crash test

By Nick Roumpis

Mention the UK PPP market to any infrastructure financier and you’re unlikely to see genuine excitement. This market has shrunk from 72 deals closed in 2012 to just five last year.

But plans for a possible renaissance are afoot in 2026, driven by two bold experiments. One is the use of a regulated asset base (RAB) model for the Lower Thames Crossing (LTC) to ease London traffic gridlock. The second is a new wave of PPPs for Neighbourhood Health Centres – a plan by the NHS to relieve pressure on hospitals and bring healthcare “closer to home”.

Traditionally limited to water and energy, the RAB model’s appeal lies in converting greenfield risk “into something long-term investors can absorb” by offering regulated returns for investors, says Alex Carver, global co-head of energy and infrastructure finance at Eversheds Sutherland.

A RAB model last year was used to back the giant Sizewell C nuclear project, but transport assets like LTC also “fit that profile remarkably well”, says Carver. If LTC is successful, it would signal that RAB is “no longer confined to pipes and cables” and offers a credible template for future mega-projects.

However, the use of RAB for LTC is not expected to be a smooth ride. Daniel Mewton, partner at Slaughter and May, says it will be complex and time-consuming.

“New legislation will be required to establish a new regulator, and the private financing process will itself require some time,” he says. “Delivering all of this while keeping the project on schedule will require great effort, but it could deliver significant value if achieved.”

Similarly, the government’s plans to build around 80% of the 250 Neighbourhood Health Centres announced represents a significant shift in the post-PFI era, following years of underinvestment in the healthcare sector.

Phil Harris, partner at Stephenson Harwood, says the new programme can draw on tried and tested schemes like LIFT, an old PFI-style model used to procure GP surgeries, but would still require time to build a stable project pipeline.

Public interest “would be best served by taking the time to make sure that the programme works, rather than simply rushing to market,” says Harris.

If 2026 is too early, PPP investors can wait another year.

French EV charging consolidation to come

By Talya Misiri

The rapid expansion of France’s electric vehicle (EV) market has fuelled a parallel proliferation of EV charging businesses across the country. Growing demand for more charging points has meant that capex requirements are in turn increasing.

However, following a surge of interest by infrastructure investors into EV charging in its nascent years, market players have more recently struggled to attract capital.

The funding need is large. Charge France, an association of 13 major EV charging players, estimates that companies need to invest EUR 3bn in the sector by 2028.

But deals are already taking longer to get done. In early 2025, CVC DIF-backed Bump launched a process to raise additional equity to meet its growth targets that has not led to a deal to date. Other companies that were tipped to come to market included E-Totem, Voltalia’s electric mobility subsidiary Yusco and Engie’s charging business Vianeo.

Unsuccessful fundraising attempts, paired with a ballooning number of industry players seeking capital has led to an increased need for consolidation to manage funding needs of these businesses.

Gregory Roquier, managing partner at Virellian Partners, says the EV charging market is reaching an “inflexion point”.

“Over the last two years, it has been very difficult to complete transactions in this space and we are reaching the end of period where EV charging businesses have enough capital to grow independently,” he says. “Consolidation is certainly coming, the question is more when than if.”

New sectors will expand value-add infra frontiers

By Stefano Berra

GPs stretched the definition of infrastructure in 2025 to invest in mobility software (Antin), vertical farms (Swiss Life) and beer kegs rental (MML), to name a few.

Value-add infrastructure strategies are proliferating, with IFM Investors and Morrison among the newcomers, and are targeting new sectors to find the next untapped opportunities offering higher returns.

Asset leasing will be the next frontier for many of the most adventurous investors in 2026.

Transport equipment is at the top of the agenda – I Squared kicked off the year with the takeover of traffic management firm Ramudden, while Dutch peer Buko is next on the market.

Mohamed El Gazzar, senior partner at I Squared, says the services offered by these companies “are becoming essential to keeping assets safe, efficient and operational” as existing infrastructure ages, while rising public spending to maintain local roads should fuel their growth.

“The UK’s real opportunity lies not only in building new assets, but in optimising what already exists,” he says.

Industrial equipment is also likely to be heavily targeted: IFM has been circling forklift lessor Briggs, and infrastructure funds have set their sights on Flannery Hire.

Any specialised equipment lessor that can lay claims to benefitting from barriers to entry is likely to come in the crosshairs of infrastructure funds if it goes on auction, says one value-add fund manager.

Security and surveillance assets will be particularly “hot”, adds the manager. Arcus made the first move with the acquisition of WCCTV, and another possible target is BauWatch.

Leasing assets to the burgeoning AI industry, from chips to fuel cells, will also attract infrastructure funds, says another investor – bubble fears notwithstanding.

The evolving definition of infrastructure is a consequence of constant change in economies and societies, argues Jack Howell, co-president of Stonepeak, an infrastructure investor that more than others has targeted new sectors, from metal components manufacturing (Forgital) to lubricants supply (Castrol).

“Investors’ focus has shifted from narrow definitions of infrastructure based on physical characteristics to more pragmatic definitions that take into account investment and operational characteristics, such as essentiality, predictability, durability, structural protection, pricing power, competitive dynamics,” says Howell.

Most value-add managers hope to eventually sell these assets to lower-cost-of-capital infrastructure investors, but in 2026 more assets might go back from infrastructure to private equity funds. One to watch is Partners Group’s Telepass, where PE players are said to be circling.

2025 failed deals to come back?

By Antonio Fabrizio

Several multi-billion-euro M&A deals expected in 2025 did not materialise, as the price gap between buyers and sellers remained wide. At the same time, GPs are still facing pressure from LPs to return capital and continue to look for exit options.

The result is that some mega deals might come back in 2026 in a different shape.

One way forward is to break up assets that are too big. EQT for example revised plans to sell its EUR 8bn Nordic telecoms group GlobalConnect as a whole, and recently opted to sell the firm’s fibre networks, data centres and subsea cables separately.

French telecoms infrastructure provider TDF may head the same way. Its owners led by Brookfield are considering selling only its broadcasting assets after NBOs for the whole company fell below their EUR 8bn target. Global IPP Cubico, worth up to EUR 7bn, may follow suit.

Several assets have been refinanced in the past two years to allow GPs to hold on to the companies for longer. If market conditions improve, they could return to market in 2026.

The main example is waste management giant Urbaser. Platinum Equity recouped billions of euros of investments via a dividend recap after sale talks with Blackstone and EQT faltered, but a sale might return to the table this year.

When the sellers are institutional investors rather than GPs, the reasons and timing of a new exit can be harder to gauge. OPTrust stopped the sale of its 40% stake in Globalvia mid-year and it’s unclear if the deal might come back, but some industry players remain hopeful. French utility Terega is in a similar situation, after a minority sale stalled more than a year ago.

Disposals by strategics are also less predictable. One closely watched player is Cellnex. After it scrapped the sale of its Swiss unit last year, observers are trying to figure out whether the tower operator is still in asset disposal mode.

Shifting from a full sale to a minority sale is another option – one that Partners Group chose for its EUR 6.7bn German metering giant Techem after regulatory hurdles blocked a full exit. EQT has been seeking a full sale of its ferry operator NFI, but it received some offers only for a minority.

If all else fails, continuation funds are still an option.

PPPs to boom in Saudi Arabia

By Jennifer Aguinaldo

While there are hopes for a comeback of PPPs in the UK, one market where PPPs are a reality is Saudi Arabia.

The Gulf’s largest country has been EMEA’s biggest PPP market over the past six years, with USD 30bn of projects reaching financial close since the beginning of 2020, against USD 20.5bn in the UK, according to Infralogic data.

Its pipeline is equally promising. Over 200 PPP and privatisation projects are live or planned in Saudi Arabia, compared with around 80 counted by Infralogic in the UK.

Saudi Arabia’s first metro PPP drew interest in October from a record 140 companies – a who’s who of global infrastructure developers, from Plenary to Vinci, and from Aberdeen Investcorp to Itochu.

Gulf states have stubbornly relied on state financing to deliver infrastructure outside the power and water desalination sectors in the past. But this is changing rapidly.

Abu Dhabi has also touted PPP plans across housing, transport and culture requiring some USD 55bn of investment, while Oman previously announced a pipeline of 45 PPPs and Kuwait recently unveiled plans to tender some 23 mostly social infrastructure PPPs. Jordan has a well-advanced PPP pipeline, while even Iraq is proposing new projects.

Legal frameworks for PPPs are becoming more robust across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, particularly in Saudi Arabia, driving investor interest, according to Ashurst senior associate Jason Gouveia.

“The regulatory environments in these regions have matured significantly, adopting best practice from around the world and adopting familiar processes aimed at attracting foreign participants and instilling confidence among foreign investors,” says Gouveia.

Most states have adopted PPP legislations and set up specialised procuring units, often attached to their influential finance ministries, and have executed small pilot projects. These steps can help enable larger-scale PPPs and smoothen the challenges associated with the deep technical expertise and increased costs PPPs entail.

Oil prices have fallen over the past four years, hitting fiscal revenues and adding incentives to hydrocarbons-rich Gulf states to accommodate private capital to finance massive capital spending in new airports and roads.

Ashurst partner, Adam Skibsted, says global infrastructure PPP players are redirecting teams from other shrinking PPP markets to establish operations in the GCC.

“Our own team has tripled in size, including the addition of two new partners, to meet the demand of out our current mandates, which include mega rail and road PPPs in [Saudi Arabia] and the Dubai Strategic Sewer Tunnel project and this future pipeline,” said Skibsted.

“It is clear to see that the years ahead are going to set new standards in terms of deal flow both in Saudi Arabia, as well as other active PPP markets such as the UAE, Kuwait and Oman.”

The Gulf promises to offer high growth rates typical of developing markets with the low risks usually associated to developed markets. More global infrastructure funds and developers are likely to test the waters in 2026 to see if the region can deliver on this promise.