Lotfi Karoui, multi-asset credit strategist at fixed-income behemoth PIMCO, says the top risk to markets and the economy is the potential unwinding of the AI capex cycle, on the latest episode of Credit Exchange with Lisa Lee.

“Then you’re going to tighten financial conditions,” says Karoui, which is bad news for equities. That will have wealth effects and probably affect the broader economy. The market isn’t blindly rewarding all capex financing announcements, he says. Right now, markets are seeing some indigestion regarding data centre financing – Karoui recommends looking at dollar versus other currency debt to see whether that’s fundamental or technical.

Karoui, who is also co-head of client solutions and analytics at PIMCO, is watching six-month oil futures and diesel prices to gauge whether the resumption of the Iran war is choking up economic activity. We discuss his inflation expectations (moderating), the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy (on hold), and private credit (seeing some stress). He also finds pockets of fixed income in emerging markets such as Brazil and South Africa compelling.