The cards are stacked in the New York Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s (MTA) favor with respect to revenue collections from the three new downstate casino licenses, according to market analysts.

“I think it’s a win for the MTA,” David Isaacson, senior vice president and partner at Spectrum Gaming Capital, told Debtwire Municipals, referring to the revenue the agency has already received and will continue to receive from licenses awarded in December 2025 to Bally’s Bronx and Hard Rock Metropolitan Park to construct two new casinos, and to Genting’s Resorts World New York City to expand its racino into an integrated resort.

“These casinos will create a new revenue stream and are poised to generate significant revenue,” he said.

Mitchell Moss, Henry Hart Rice Professor of Urban Policy and Planning at New York University (NYU), echoed the sentiment.

“The state very wisely required an upfront payment. The state received money from the casinos before they were operating. That alone is a good thing for the MTA,” he said.

Healthy revenue projections

The licenses awarded to the three casinos by the New York State Gaming Commission provided the MTA with USD 1.5bn (USD 500m each) in upfront licensing fees from the two new casinos and the expansion, per prior legislation.

On 16 June 2025, the New York State Gaming Facility Location Board amended Sections 601.1 and 602.1 of Title 9 of the New York Code of Rules and Regulations, establishing a minimum license fee of USD 500m and a minimum capital investment of USD 500m for each new casino.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s (D) budget for FY24, beginning 1 April 2024 estimated that, should the licenses be awarded, the MTA would eventually receive a share of an estimated USD 462m to USD 826m in annual tax revenue from the casinos for its operations. Others have projected nearly USD 1bn in annual gaming tax revenue for the MTA by 2036.

An MTA spokesperson confirmed to Debtwire Municipals that the agency has “budgeted USD 500m in 2026, 2027 and 2028 for each license fee.”

MTA’s varied revenue stream helpful

Fares and tolls account for 40% of the MTA’s operating budget, with the remainder of its revenues stemming from other sources including a payroll mobility tax, a portion of sales taxes collected in the MTA region, a portion of real estate taxes and subsidies from New York City to support certain transit operations.

Jacob Wasserman, research program manager at the University of California, Los Angeles’ Institute of Transportation Studies, said this mixed pool is necessary.

“One-time revenue streams match well with one-time capital projects. But on the operating side, an agency would prefer a steadier revenue source to match ongoing expenses,” Wasserman said.

The need for diversified transit revenue sources became clearer as pandemic stimulus funds began to dry up while post-pandemic ridership recovery lagged, he noted.

“A reliance on fare revenues—while perhaps viewed as ‘self-sufficient’ pre-pandemic and incentivized in many states by tying state transit funds to farebox recovery ratios—has since become a millstone around the neck of commuter-oriented transit agencies,” Wasserman added.

Meanwhile, NYU’s Moss said the MTA’s range of revenue streams is what makes the agency’s bonds among the most attractive in the country.

“The bonds are such a great buy because even if income tax doesn’t do well, there are other taxes, all of which contribute to the MTA’s fiscal health,” Moss said.

Location and oversaturation concerns

The Bally’s Bronx integrated casino will be located at Bally’s Golf Links at Ferry Point in the Bronx and is projected to open mid-2030, as reported. Hard Rock Metropolitan Park will be an integrated casino resort and entertainment district in Queens, adjacent to Citi Field, with a projected June 2030 opening. Resorts World New York City will expand and convert its existing video lottery terminal (VLT) facility in Queens into a full commercial casino.

A Spectrum Gaming Capital gaming market study from January 2021 included a scenario in which three downstate casinos and two VLT facilities existed, resulting in a “highly saturated gaming market” that would see incumbent operators experience significant revenue declines. But Isaacson said the fact that the three winning bidders paid USD 500m for the licenses suggests they all believe there is sufficient demand to operate profitably in the New York City market.

“That USD 500m license fee up front is extremely high and it’s reflective of the value that New York City has as a regional casino market due to massive population and wealth,” he said.

And the American Gaming Association’s 2025 State of the States report indicated that, in 2024, the Resorts World New York City racino in Queens retained its status as the most lucrative commercial casino in the US outside Nevada. That status seemingly positions Resorts to do well with its future expansion despite its proximity to the other new casinos.

“Casinos work in New York,” said the New York-based Moss. “We don’t rely on having one of anything, Competition brings out excellence,” he added, noting that the new casinos will be located near airports, freeways, mass transit commuter rail.