Against a backdrop of tariff tensions, geopolitical instability and a tug-of-war over US monetary policy, CEEMEA issuers have tactfully surpassed previous years’ issuance records.

Around USD 373bn-equivalent has been issued since the start of the year across all currencies, up from USD 312bn-equivalent by the end of 2024, according to Dealogic data.

Of this year’s volumes, around USD 235bn has been issued in US dollars, up from USD 198bn last year.

Resilience to the year’s volatility, which hit its apex in April with the announcement of US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, was demonstrated by an almost continuous flow of primary supply, tighter spreads and robust investor demand.

The spectre of tariffs as a market disruptor did not have a lasting effect as initially feared, according to Khaled Darwish, head of CEEMEA debt capital markets at HSBC.

“The market has learned how to function with geopolitical uncertainty and headline risk in the background. It has also shown a lot of resilience to geopolitical events, with supply continuing at a record pace despite a number of conflicts taking place throughout the year. Facing lower interest rates, investors are increasingly driven by the hunt for yield,” said Darwish.

Issuance was spearheaded by the Middle East, bolstered by Saudi Arabia’s vigorous debt-raising, which solidified its position as one of the largest emerging market issuers globally.

Rising issuance

There is unlikely to be much respite for investors looking ahead. Following a year of “relentless” supply, Victor Mourad, co-head of CEEMEA debt financing at Citi, expressed optimism for the year ahead.

“Given the 2026 refinancing schedule, capex plans and forecasted deficits, volumes could potentially end up being very close to what we saw this year,” Mourad said.

A return to longer-dated funding is likely, reflecting pent-up demand. According to Mourad, there are expected to be more 30-year transactions, likely at the expense of the three-year tenor.

Sentiments across the markets are buoyant. Ritesh Agarwal, head of debt capital markets, investment banking at Emirates NBD Capital, expects CEEMEA volumes to be in line or slightly higher in 2026.

Barring any major headlines, markets appear conducive, and macroeconomic issues such as the tariff saga seem to have eased, Agarwal argued. “Despite rates volatility, inflows are up and investors want to deploy their cash. With the rates curve now normalised, many money market funds are moving back to fixed income.”

However, issuers are not completely out of the woods – global recession risks loom, with market participants eagerly awaiting clarity on jobs and inflation data, and the trajectory of further rate cuts in the new year.

Still, driven by continued diversification efforts in the Gulf, consistent sovereign and MREL-linked issuance in emerging Europe and the anticipated return of more African sovereigns, prospects for another bumper year are high.

Saudi crowned king

Saudi Arabia was, by all estimations, the dominant force across CEEMEA in 2025, accounting for 24% of all issuance. It produced around USD 89.8bn-equivalent of new paper, with USD 65.6bn coming in US dollars, according to Dealogic, as ambitious economic diversification efforts in the Kingdom persist.

The sovereign itself took around USD 20bn-equivalent in the international markets, demonstrating its continued advancement on the international stage by issuing US dollar conventional and sukuk instruments as well as a euro-denominated deal.

Despite the deluge of deals across the Kingdom and questions throughout the year around investor satiety, buysiders have digested such issuance well – for now.

“One of the most pertinent realisations this year has been how well the market has absorbed Saudi supply and there is the expectation that this momentum will continue,” said Sam Mirza, head of corporate and sovereign DCM, Middle East at Standard Chartered Bank. “Investors continue to be positive on this critical market and many of these deals have been executed at very low to no new issue premia.”

Subordinated issuance in the Middle East rose demonstrably year-on-year, with Tier 1 and Tier 2 levels reaching USD 17.6bn, excluding domestic sales, up from USD 6.7bn in 2024. Much of that came from Saudi, where banks are experiencing vast loan book growth in light of Vision 2030, consequently pushing them to international markets.

While the market remains open and investors are becoming more comfortable with the amount being issued, given the context of the Kingdom’s growth aspirations, issuers may need to offer more incentives. That may materialise in different prices, sizes, currencies or formats, according to Nour Safa, head of MENA debt capital markets at HSBC.

“There was significant capital issuance from Saudi banks this year, though how much they are able to continue issuing in the market may be one to watch in coming years,” said Safa. “It has not taken its toll yet, but investors are cognisant. Banks issuing the same instrument need to offer investors a pricing differential.”

While recent reports indicate that the government is becoming increasingly conscious of spending, investors should not expect activity from Saudi to wane, bankers told Debtwire.

The Kingdom will continue to produce the “lion’s share” of issuance, Emirates NBD’s Agarwal said.

“There is always demand for any paper at the right price,” he noted, adding that some issuers had already started paying relatively higher levels despite having high ratings.

Middle East sovereigns break new ground

While the Kingdom made the largest contribution to Middle East flows, the rest of the region held its own, with sovereigns, in particular, achieving a number of pricing feats.

Abu Dhabi‘s USD 3bn dual-tranche bond sale in September priced at historic low spreads – 10bps over US Treasuries on the three-year and UST+ 18bps on the 10-year – with a peak orderbook of USD 18.5bn.

Meanwhile, Qatar‘s USD 4bn dual-tranche offering in November achieved the tightest-ever spread globally on a sukuk, and the second tightest spread ever achieved by an emerging market sovereign on a 10-year offering.

The cost of risk for emerging markets versus developed markets has been tested this year, HSBC’s Darwish posited.

“I believe this could be an inflection point for future years. These volumes could become normalised as I do not see the region reverting to the years of sub-USD 100bn of issuance,” Darwish said, adding that the magnitude of regional issuance had surprised the market.

Kuwait also made a comeback after eight years out of the market, with an USD 11.25bn triple-trancher, garnering over USD 23.7bn of orders at the time of launch. That move has opened up access for more of the country’s issuers next year, market participants said.

Should rates come down, this will enhance issuers’ ability to achieve tight yields, likely adding more support to volume growth, said Standard Chartered’s Mirza, who anticipated around USD 160bn-180bn of issuance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in 2026.

As the market evolves and expands in size, traditional dynamics are in flux – from investor broadening to currency diversification.

The Gulf market, in particular, anchored by investment grade sovereigns, has increasingly caught the attention of Asia-based investors who are demanding a larger piece of the pie.

According to Mirza, average allocations to Asian investors have risen from the 5%-10% mark in recent years to over 20% this year across many deals, creating a conducive environment for deeper Gulf-Asia investment.

Mirza noted the bank is doing more Asian non-deal roadshows than ever before, and the uptick of interest in the Gulf’s US dollar trades has created the potential for regional issuers, in particular, government-related entities, to enter the dim sum and panda bond markets.

Driven by a shift away from US investments, which has helped to propel interest in the Gulf’s safe haven assets, and a relative lack of onshore supply in China this year, the move signals “a new era for the region”, according to HSBC’s Safa.

Saudi’s dual-tranche sukuk offering in September saw the average investor allocation across tranches equal at 31% for both Asian investors and MENA (excluding Saudi) investors. Asian investors also picked up the majority – 31% – of Abu Dhabi’s 10-year offering in September.

The uptick of interest spans asset classes, also extending to the loan market, with Abu Dhabi’s ADQ this year raising a USD 5bn Asia-focused syndicated loan that came on the back of a bond sale earlier in the year that attracted huge participation from Asian accounts, Safa noted.

With diversification top of the agenda, euro-denominated funding has also garnered interest from the region’s issuers.

This year, around USD 9bn-equivalent of euro-denominated debt was issued in the Gulf, compared to USD 1.9bn-equivalent last year, according to data from Dealogic.

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) priced an inaugural EUR 1.65bn dual-tranche green offering in October, while Debtwire reported that UAE-based renewable energy company Masdar is also considering a debut euro-denominated green bond.

Saudi Arabia itself issued a EUR 2.25bn dual-trancher in February, which attracted over 100 new investors, according to HSBC’s Safa. “Euros will continue to be a potential funding avenue to the extent it provides decent pricing for issuers relative to their US dollar curves.”

Central Asia gains ground

While Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) remains the bellwether for Emerging Europe, Central Asian issuers are emerging as some of the region’s more dynamic forces, as tightening spreads push investors to hunt for yield in frontier geographies.

In total, Central Asian issuers have taken around USD 15bn-equivalent of investor cash this year, including a debut from Kyrgyzstan, compared to USD 7.7bn-equivalent in 2024 and USD 1.3bn-equivalent in 2023, according to Dealogic.

Uzbekistan, in particular, has been a “success story”, according to Agarwal at Emirates NBD, who expects continued growth from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in the coming year.

Yury Kiselev, head of CEEMEA debt capital markets at Societe Generale, expects more modest issuance from the region in 2026 of around USD 12bn-USD 13bn, due to issuers having already covered short-term funding needs.

“We expect the pairing up of hard and local currency issuance to continue, subject to the FX trends and prices for natural resources, for example gold,” he said.

Uzbekistan for example in February this year priced a dual-tranche US dollar and Uzbek-som denominated offering.

Navoi Mining and Metallurgical Complex, the state-owned Uzbekistan-based gold miner, priced a USD 500m 6.75% five-year bond in May, with hopes to become a more frequent issuer.

The regional FIG sector also gained momentum, with Uzbek Industrial and Construction Bank (SQB) pricing its debut AT1 issuance, one of only two outstanding in the region, alongside Kazakh-based lender Fortebank.

CEE issuance led by MREL

In total, issuance in CEE and Central Asia totalled around USD 150bn-equivalent so far this year, according to Dealogic, with the former dominating volumes.

“In 2026 we expect [aggregate CEE issuance] to stay in the similar zip-code to [last year’s levels],” according to Societe Generale’s Kiselev.

CEE consistently records heavy sovereign issuance, and 2025 was no exception, with over USD 81bn-equivalent raised year to date.

Nevertheless, Romania stands out for its high issuance volumes of over USD 17bn-equivalent in benchmark deals in 2025, as well as frequent taps of its curve between benchmark deals amounting to USD 1bn-equivalent, despite the sovereign offering the most elevated yields within the European Union.

The region’s private sector corporates demonstrated resilience in navigating tariff-driven volatility in 2025, delivering one of their strongest performances on record. Year-to-date bond supply from the region, excluding sovereigns, supranationals and agencies, surpassed EUR 38bn-equivalent, significantly outpacing the roughly EUR 30bn issued in FY24, according to Gunter Deuber, head of research, and Ruslan Gadeev, fixed income & ESG research at Raiffeisen Bank International.

MREL (Minimum Requirement for Own Funds and Eligible Liabilities) issuance continues to be a key driver of non-sovereign volumes in CEE, with FIG deals of around EUR 20bn exceeding corporate bond sales. That is further complemented by record volumes of covered bond transactions of over EUR 7bn this year, according to Deuber and Gadeev.

“The banks’ inroads for ‘bail-inable’ funding have indeed become a run-of-the-mill exercise thanks to the broadly compressed ‘CEE premium’, allowing issuers to go further out the curve with longer maturities and also into more subordinated bond classes,” they said.

Banca Transilvania issued its debut AT1 bond last month, shortly after Nova Ljubljanska banka priced its own AT1, demonstrating investors’ appetite to venture further down the capital structure.

Regular gross issuance of EUR 10bn-EUR 15bn per annum is expected from CEE banks in the near term. That, Deuber and Gadeev said, is based on the nearing maturity wall of 2026-27 when EUR 15bn becomes due or callable, additional capital requirements in some jurisdictions such as Poland, and positive credit growth momentum.

Regional corporate volumes may increase, in part due to a more active M&A space and growing capex commitments, including those impacted by EU programmes and initiatives, such as telecommunications infrastructure investments.

The defense sector is also expected to remain active, navigating between the bond and loan markets, according to Deuber and Gadeev. “In principle, the well-received multi-tranche bond issue by Czechoslovak Group (CSG) this year confirmed high investor appetite for the topic despite its ESG controversy,” they noted, referring to CSG’s USD 1bn 6.5% and EUR 1bn 5.25% January 2031 tranches issued in June.

Elsewhere, commercial real estate borrowers have tapped the market to the tune of USD 4.9bn-equivalent in 2025, according to Dealogic, carrying out liability management exercises aimed at easing near-term maturity pressures, as well as issuance for general financing needs.

CPI Property Group extended its debt profile this year through a tender and concomitant EUR 500m 4.75% July 2030-maturing green bond issuance.

Earlier in the year, the group also launched an exchange offer to refinance its SGD 150m (EUR 101m) 5.8% hybrids and EUR 550m 4.875% hybrids with new subordinated notes.

Africa tests the waters

African sovereigns, including Kenya, Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and more recently South Africa, have made a cautious but deliberate return to the Eurobond market this year.

Mourad at Citi, which worked on every public hard currency bond from sub-Saharan Africa this year, expects issuance to grow in 2026, after a strong year marked not only by sovereigns but also the return of non-investment grade corporates.

Angola’s USD 1.75bn dual-trancher, which priced in October, exemplified the market’s tentative recovery. The sovereign had explored a potential Eurobond issuance earlier this year but held off amid volatile market conditions. It also faced a USD 200m margin call from JPMorgan tied to a total return swap backed by its sovereign bonds – a reminder of how market swings can strain even resource-backed credits.

The region’s comeback in primary markets follows a period in which high global rates and tighter liquidity effectively shut market access, pushing governments toward alternatives such as syndicated loans, concessional financing and other structured instruments, according to Ed Hoyle, head of syndicate at Standard Bank.

These alternative funding channels have become increasingly important as governments balance rising refinancing needs with the realities of a more volatile global rate environment. They have allowed issuers to explore a wider suite of instruments that can offer flexibility, competitive pricing and access to different pockets of liquidity when the Eurobond market is less accommodating.

Sukuk, panda and samurai bonds and partial risk guarantee-covered instruments are tools that will play an increasing role in the region’s diversification, Hoyle said, alongside the natural development of local capital markets.

Victor Germeshuizen, head of hard currency debt capital markets at Absa, also remained optimistic about Eurobond issuance heading into 2026. Some of that is predicated on the tightening yield differential between African sovereigns and US Treasuries, market participants noted. The turnaround in 2025 has reset the borrowing calculus for African sovereigns.

The African sovereign spread over US Treasuries compressed from distress‑era levels of nearly 900bps in 2023 to roughly 350bps at the time of writing – the lowest since before the coronavirus pandemic.

Absent any macro surprises – particularly in relation to US inflation and growth – Germeshuizen anticipated yields for African sovereigns to remain around “constructive levels,” with possible improvement if inflation continues its downward trend.

“While this makes for attractive levels for issuance, we don’t see a material net supply increase of African sovereign paper. Next year is a low-maturity year for sovereigns, but with some large amortisations coming through that may need funding,” Germeshuizen noted.

Many of the established sovereign issuers will seek to balance their funding needs with local currencies to avoid the possible negative implications of a material US dollar rally on fiscal balances, he added.

Sukuk market’s exponential rise

The Shariah-compliant bond market, once a niche sub-space, is gaining traction at an unprecedented rate.

Investors lapped up USD 80.5bn-equivalent of sukuk issuance from CEEMEA this year, unsurprisingly concentrated in the Gulf. That marked a 29% year-on-year increase – with USD 62bn of issuance denominated in US dollars.

As ties between sub-Saharan Africa and the Gulf grow, the sukuk market is expected to draw in debut issuers from the region.

Potential debut placements are expected from Benin and Senegal, which are exploring options for Shariah-compliant issuance.

Deep liquidity and attractive pricing are allowing the market to become more international, Citi’s Mourad said, with investors more comfortable investing in non-core names.

Despite ongoing uncertainty around new regulatory introductions, namely AAOIFI’s Standard 62, which could potentially transform the sukuk market as it is currently known, issuers and investors alike are undeterred. Increased regulatory clarity in the UAE, driven by the Higher Shariah Authority, has supported that.

“We started the year with concerns that new sukuk regulation would impact sukuk issuance in a material way – thankfully that has not materialised,” said HSBC’s Darwish, noting that the product has instead gained popularity, including in countries such as Turkey.

Turk Telekom, the majority state-owned telecommunications company, priced an inaugural USD 600m 6.5% October 2030-maturing sukuk, which market participants lauded for drawing in a larger orderbook than its conventional offering that had priced a few weeks earlier. According to Emirates NBD’s Agarwal, Turk Telekom managed to price 20bps inside its conventional curve.

While some say the pricing differential between the two markets is gradually waning – some estimates say the average differential has tightened from around 15bps-20bps to 5bps-10bps – appetite is fierce.

Despite questions remaining around the format of Standard 62 and how exactly changes will take place, the overall tone from regulators regarding changing the registration of assets demonstrates that they do not want to disrupt the market, and instead want to make the right changes in a measurable manner, Darwish concluded.