China’s merger control regulator is wrapping up its review of American Axle & Manufacturing’s (AAM) proposed acquisition of Dowlais, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

SAMR is satisfied with the remedy packages agreed by the parties and is moving its review to the final sign-off procedures, the two sources said.

SAMR’s conditional approval is expected to come within days or weeks, according to the two sources and another three sources familiar with the matter.

SAMR approval will likely come in January, said a third source. But if the market watchdog accelerates final sign-off steps, the USD 1.44bn cash-and-stock transaction may secure clearance before the end of December, the third source added.

The first source dismissed the possibility that the approval would require a sign-off from government bodies above SAMR, noting that the transaction between New York-listed AAM and London-based Dowlais mainly involves conventional automotive component manufacturing, which is considered non-sensitive.

The review clock was suspended weeks ago to allow deal parties to finalize proposed behavioral remedies, the first two sources said.

This news service previously reported that, as of late November, the parties were engaged in remedy talks with SAMR; the review clock was yet to be suspended at that time.

SAMR accepted the deal for review in early July. Based on the statutory timeline, the agency’s review was suspended in the latter period of Phase III.

In a 27 October release, AAM said the transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026.

The parties expect SAMR clearance in late 2025 or early 2026, the release said.

The deal has received clearance in multiple jurisdictions, with pending approvals expected from Brazil, Mexico and China, according to the same announcement.

On 6 November, Brazil’s competition authority CADE granted unconditional clearance. Mexico’s competition authority approved the transaction on 20 November, leaving China as the only outstanding jurisdiction.

AAM and Dowlais did not respond to requests for comment.

SAMR does not comment on ongoing cases.