• NDRC considers host-country security risks when reviewing ODI deals
• Conditions in Mali’s capital remain stable
• Another Chinese miner reports normal operations in southern Mali

China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is considering the security conditions in Mali before deciding whether to grant approval to Zijin’s proposed CAD 5.5bn (USD 4bn) acquisition of Toronto-listed Allied Gold, according to a source familiar with the matter and an industry source familiar with investment in Mali.

No one knows when the NDRC will approve the transaction, according to the source familiar, who added that the regulator has its own set of considerations.

According to the same source, the NDRC is closely assessing security conditions in Mali before determining whether the proposed acquisition should proceed. The source pointed to concerns over the security situation in the West African nation, where Allied Gold operates key mining assets, and said the regulator requires “in-depth thinking” before deciding whether to grant approval.

The source also cited the European Commission’s (EC) prolonged review of MMG Ltd’s proposed acquisition of Anglo American’s Brazilian nickel business. Announced on 18 February 2025, the transaction was notified to the EC on 16 September 2025, and has been under regulatory review for around ten months. The EC opened an in-depth Phase II investigation in last November, prompting the parties to extend the long-stop date to 31 October 2026.

While the source indicated that the NDRC’s review may extend beyond technical regulatory considerations to encompass geopolitical and country-risk assessments — potentially complicating the approval timeline, a Zijin investor relations officer said the company continues to advance the approval process but has not made sufficient progress to warrant a public announcement.

When asked if the 29 July long-stop date may require a second extension, the IR officer said the company had no further information regarding the timetable for now and investors should await future announcements.

Mali situation

A source familiar with the Chinese Embassy in Mali told this news service that conditions in Bamako, the country’s capital, remain normal.

In the embassy’s latest security advisory issued on 19 July, Kayas region, where Allied Gold’s Sadiola mine is located, was not named in the list of high-risk areas.

However, the source familiar with the embassy told this news service that Kayas is still a high-risk area.

According to the industry source, who is familiar with the Ganfeng Lithium Group that operates the Goulamina lithium project in southern Mali, mine operations and related logistics activities are currently proceeding normally in Mali. Logistics were affected by insurgent related incidents in April and May, the industry source said, but operations have since returned to normal.

The industry source added that the NDRC considers the host country’s security conditions when reviewing outbound investment projects. But Ganfeng’s investment in Mali was approved several years ago, when security risks in the country were less pronounced, he noted.

The industry source said the use of professional security providers is an effective way to mitigate risks in Mali and noted that Ganfeng relies on such services to safeguard its local operations.

Zijin’s strategy

The value of gold and the scarcity of gold resources have become increasingly evident amid rising geopolitical risks and market uncertainties,” said Zijin Chairman and Party Secretary Zou Laichang, who reportedly spoke at a national gold industry summit on 16 July. The summit was organized by the China Gold Association, where Zou serves as a vice president.

“As a result, the gold industry in China and around the world has entered a major strategic window for high-quality development,” Zou added.

According to the report, Zou described gold as the most important metal in the history of human civilization and the cornerstone for global financial stability. He noted that despite China’s relatively limited resource endowment and low-grade ore deposits, the country’s gold industry has ranked first globally in mine production for 19 consecutive years through technological innovations and sustained industry development.

Zijin announced two gold transactions in 2026. In addition to the Allied Gold acquisition announced on 26 January, the company said on 22 March that it would acquire a combined controlling stake of 25.85% in Chifeng Jilong Gold through a share transfer and new share subscription for approximately CNY 18.258bn (USD 2.65bn). Upon completion, the two transactions would significantly expand Zijin’s global gold portfolio across Africa, China and Southeast Asia, while adding substantial resources, reserves and annual production capacity.

As Zijin noted when announcing the Allied Gold transaction, resource misallocation inevitably exists in the market. The key is to identify opportunities for value creation. In its overseas development history, Zijin has encountered significant security and political risks in two key acquisitions.

In Colombia, its Buriticá gold mine — acquired through the takeover of Continental Gold and now held via Zijin Gold International, in which Zijin owns a 58.96% stake — has faced attacks from drug cartels and illegal armed groups, including a 2023 bombing that killed two and injured 14 others, as well as large-scale illegal mining activities and gold theft. The disputes prompted Zijin to initiate ICSID arbitration proceedings against the Colombian government, which remain pending. In Papua New Guinea, Zijin’s interest in the Porgera gold mine was diluted from 47.5% to 24.5% following a prolonged shutdown of the operation between 2020 and 2023.

Despite these challenges, Buriticá produced 8.8 tonnes of gold on a 100% basis in 2025 and remains a core asset within the Zijin Gold International portfolio. The mine accounted for approximately 20% of Zijin’s total gold production in 2024. Porgera resumed operations in late 2023 and produced 376,057 ounces of gold in 2025, slightly above budget. The mine contributed 1,357kg of attributable gold production in the first half of 2025 and a further 767kg in the third quarter. Based on the company’s 2026 projections, Porgera is expected to generate attributable net profit of approximately CNY 23.3bn-CNY 24.8bn in attributable net profit, representing about 3% of Zijin’s projected group net profit.

Both cases highlight the vulnerability of overseas mining investments to political shifts, regulatory reversals, and security risks in host countries. Nevertheless, Zijin has sought to unlock value from the two projects through operational improvements and its in-house technical and management expertise.

Allied Gold did not respond to a request for comment. The NDRC does not comment on ongoing transactions.