What began as a roaring start to the year for European secondary sell-downs soured at the start of 2Q, in response to surging global volatility triggered by tariffs introduced by US president Donald Trump.

Volumes in the first quarter hit USD 36.9bn, driven by jumbo block trades in Ferrari NV (USD 3.1bn) and Haleon plc (USD 3.09bn and USD 3.05bn), according to Dealogic. That made it the best first quarter for secondary issuance in EMEA since 2021, when volumes reached USD 47.6bn.

But a cocktail of geopolitical tensions caused the EURO STOXX 50 Volatility Index (VSTOXX) to spike 42.18 and this, combined with a blackout period around first quarter earnings, has seen issuance collapse in 2Q thus far, with volumes reaching just USD 3.06bn in EMEA.

“Trump tariffs really rattled the market,” an ECM lawyer said. “We haven’t seen that kind of panic since Covid—and with the broader market selling off, bid-ask spreads have blown out and investors are only biting if there’s a chunky discount on the table.”

During 2020, the first year of the Covid pandemic, the VSTOXX averaged 32.99 as lockdowns swept across the globe.

Despite the turmoil, that year turned out to be a record one for secondary issuance, with volumes hitting USD 165bn.

While elevated volatility in 2020 coincided with a record year for secondary issuance, it remains too early to tell whether history will repeat itself in 2025.

More recently, volatility has cooled, with the VSTOXX reaching 25.7 at the end of April as the US president partially rolled back some of his most punitive tariffs, excluding China, sparking tentative optimism that the market may yet recover momentum seen in the first quarter.

“Look, Trump’s Trump, so we’re taking it day by day,” the ECM lawyer added. “But if vol cools even a little, I’d expect a few quick-to-market deals to sneak through, since investors still want exposure to quality names; it’s really just a question of timing and risk appetite right now.”