• Fears grow for Anthropic IPO as Chinese competition increases
• Real-world IPOs may have an audience if sell-off is contained

The slow-but-steady fall in the value of SpaceX following its record-breaking IPO in June is dampening the outlook for large global listings in the second half.

The decline in SpaceX’s share price, concerns that artificial intelligence (AI) valuations in the US are too generous, plus the threat of Chinese competition has diminished some enthusiasm for the sector.

The capex in data centers needed to sustain AI is also under scrutiny.

These issues are pertinent for the biggest names in the pipeline, particularly, Anthropic, the frontier AI model developer, which plans to list in 2H26. OpenAI is not expected to attempt an IPO now until 2027.

Anthropic has already started testing the waters for its own IPO with investor meetings, a banker and an investor confirmed to ECM Pulse. Its listing is expected after the summer break in the northern hemisphere.

The backdrop for the deal though looks very different from when Anthropic confidentially filed with the SEC on 1 June, in the heady days of SpaceX’s marketing period.

Elon Musk’s galactic leviathan, which has a heavy AI angle, is now almost 15% below its IPO price and well over 40% below its post-listing highs of USD 201.8 a share.

Source: Dealogic

The size and ubiquity of SpaceX’s IPO mean its underwhelming performance will be felt hard across the market.

Some bankers fear the weak performance could dampen demand for other large AI-related listings, namely Anthropic and perhaps even OpenAI next year if sentiment fails to recover.

“Anthropic is going ahead and are meeting with investors trying to go ahead but the backdrop is not great,” noted an ECM investor who took part in the SpaceX IPO, citing the lack of performance in that deal and several other large global IPOs as dampening market sentiment.

For many investors who took part in SpaceX’s historic listing the worst could still be yet to come.

On 4 August, SpaceX will unveil its first set of quarterly results as a public company. Two days later, around 20% of the company held by insiders will be unlocked for trading, representing a share overhang well in excess of the IPO’s size.

Despite the fall in the stock, several of these long-term investors are still likely sitting on huge profits from their investment in SpaceX as a private company; even with is post-IPO fall the company is valued above USD 1.5tn, still more valuable than at any time during its private lifecycle.

If insiders decide to take profits before the stock falls further, then IPO investors could face more pain. It’s hardly an opportune time for Anthropic to then be setting out its stall for another mega listing in a highly aligned sector.

“A lot of investors are concerned about Anthropic and OpenAI too, that you have this strong supply of shares potentially overwhelming the market,” said a second investor. “I think the earnings picture is going to be very important here.”

Structural pressures on frontier model providers grow

As much as AI often gets bundled in together as an investment sector in the minds of equity investors, and occasionally in market commentary, the broad swathe of IPO activity in the sector is finally allowing investors to start to differentiate.

For Anthropic and OpenAI, the two highest profile AI IPO candidates seeking public market debuts, there is another risk they need to juggle with alongside any waning investor sentiment over AI valuations.

A deluge of open-source AI models being released from China is providing global corporations with a way to incorporate similar tools to those produced by the US giants at a fraction of the cost.

While they may lack the power of premium models, they are in most cases good enough.

Given many businesses are still questioning the ultimate ROI connected to ever increasing AI spend, open-source models give businesses a way to continue to develop AI efficiencies without breaking the bank.

“The question [for OpenAI and Anthropic] is how you monetize all of this AI capex, that’s got to be a moving question, and of course the obvious elephant in the room is Chinese models making a lot of progress,” noted the second investor. “What is the prospect of Chinese models to capture the business you’re trying to achieve? If you look at some studies, the open-source models are marked around four months behind frontier models.

“That’s not a lot, and they’re significantly cheaper.”

The first investor agreed that the recent success of Chinese open-source AI models could act as a serious impediment to Anthropic, and eventually OpenAI, at IPO.

All these pressures aside Anthropic, at least is firmly on the IPO path. Investor meetings are underway and market participants talking to ECM Pulse point to an expectation that the AI giant will target October window to launch its listing.

Whether it can emulate the practicing success of SpaceX is yet to be seen; despite its aftermarket woes we shouldn’t forget that to price a USD 86.2bn IPO is a remarkable achievement.

A banker noted Anthropic would have “learnt lessons” from SpaceX but there are now lingering doubts when a few months ago there was none.

“Anthropic is definitely going but now, with all the pressures on the equity story, almost feels too late for them.”

Increased interest non-AI aligned IPOs

Last week ECM Pulse noted that there was an increased bid for European equities from investors seeking portfolio diversity away from US-listed AI names.

This has predominantly come in the form of block trades, but there is also a feeling that this might also filter over to the IPO market.

In the US, Blackstone-owned sandwich shop chain Jersey Mike’s is on the road with an IPO that could value the business at up to USD 8bn on its initial range. The USD 1bn-plus IPO is set to be one of the largest listings from the food industry in many years.

In Europe, the listings of Danish pharmaceutical business Leo Pharma or the Spanish listing of another Blackstone-owned asset, Hotel Investment Partners, could give investors exposure to real-world assets with tangible return on investment (ROI) profiles.

“If this AI-rotation continues, I think you are going to see far more interest in these highly defensive stories, like Jersey Mike’s or Leo Pharma,” noted the first investor.

As long of this spate of selling finds it floor at some point, there is hope for a good 2H, even perhaps for AI names that might be less exposed to the particular pressures on the frontier model providers.

Anthropic’s idiosyncratic qualities will also guarantee it an audience even if the risks of Chinese open-source models means valuation expectations have to be scaled back.

However, if a rebalancing becomes a correction and the correction becomes a bear market, then it will be more difficult for any IPO candidate to get across the line. The next few weeks will be vital in determining the direction for 2H26.