Polish ECM volumes in 2025 have had the best year for a decade, as robust follow-on issuance and renewed investor appetite helped offset a dearth of IPOs.

Volumes in 2025 YTD have reached USD 3.6bn, up from USD 3.3bn the year before and above USD 3.4bn in 2021, the previous high watermark.

Strong Polish performance came as follow-ons reached USD 3.2bn, the best year in a decade for the asset class.

This was driven by broader risk-on sentiment, local pension fund demand, and corporates seeking balance sheet repair rather than growth capital, a CEE banker said.

A more stable interest rate path and improving macro conditions also encouraged investors to add risk.

“One of the key advantages of the Polish capital market compared to other EU markets is Poland’s strong macroeconomic position.” Jan Rekowski, director of equity capital markets at Trigon said. “The country remains one of the fastest-growing economies in the EU, with GDP growth of around 3.7%.”

This macro resilience has helped sustain appetite for secondary issuances, allowing issuers to launch sizeable block trades without heavy discounts and giving investors confidence that earnings momentum could hold into 2026.

Despite the positive momentum for follow-ons, IPOs, however, have struggled to gain traction in 2025, after the 2024 IPO of Zabka Group SA (USD 1.6bn) briefly ignited hopes of a reopening.

Only two IPOs priced in 2025, with the only one over USD 100m being the USD 418m listing by Diagnostyka SA in January.

“IPOs in Poland have been few and far between this year because valuation gaps remain wide,” said a CEE banker. “There’s also a lingering perception that liquidity in Warsaw can be patchy for new names, and if you add elevated geopolitical risk, and still-fragile foreign participation in the equity markets, it becomes more challenging to pull the trigger on an IPO.”

Still, market sources expect the outlook for Poland to remain positive. Poland is expected to benefit from the eventual stabilisation following the conflict in Ukraine, which is likely to support regional investment sentiment, according to Trigon’s Rekowski.

“Declining interest rates should also lead to a gradual shift of capital from debt and money-market funds toward equities, as the risk-reward balance becomes more favourable for stock market investments,” he said.

Looking ahead, sentiment for 2026 is already notably brighter for ECM than for 2025. Bankers report growing pre-marketing activity, early IPO soundings and increased foreign fund engagement, suggesting that a pipeline is growing.

“We expect a clear increase in activity, including more of both IPOs and ABB transactions, which should help attract a higher number of foreign investors to Warsaw,” Trigon’s Rekowski concluded.