ECM activity overcame market volatility in January to record the best first month of a year in three, with large-cap sell-downs in Haleon [LON:HLN] and UK-listed British American Tobacco [LON:BATS] proving key drivers of early-year issuance.

Despite worries over the future of AI business models, following the rise of China’s DeepSeek, and US President Donald Trump ramping up the global trade war rhetoric, EMEA ECM issuance was able to continue through macro fears.

EMEA ECM volumes in January reached USD 9.8bn in January 2025 based on 90 deals, up from USD 5.4bn on 78 deals in January 2024, according to Dealogic data.

The strong start suggests investors are more willing to engage in large placements, reflecting healthier risk appetite and liquidity despite ongoing headwinds.

The IPO market in EMEA also appears to be open, with Diagnostyka SA [WSE: DGN] listing its stock in Warsaw and Spanish hotel groups HBX Group being healthily covered within hours of opening books.

An ECM banker noted that despite the volatility in the market, the healthy IPO discount as represented by HBX’s price range should be enough to see the deal home.

While it’s a positive start to the year, the resilience of EMEA ECM will perhaps be tested more than it was in 2024, mainly due to the return of President Donald Trump to the White House.

Market volatility, geopolitical risks, and macroeconomic shifts could still impact overall issuance. However, the pipeline remains strong.

On the IPO front, the IPOs German drugmaker Stada Arzneimittel AG, Brainlab, Nouryon are among other deals expected for this year.

But as the adage goes, markets thrive not only on stability, but on predictability – and the Trump presidency, which is only three weeks old, promises to be unpredictable, as the president’s recent statements about the US ‘taking over’ Gaza can attest to.

Whether this slows the great start to the year for EMEA ECM remains to be seen.