ECM volumes in France fell in 2025 YTD, as political instability keeps deals on hold, continuing a year-on-year decline in volumes that started in 2023.

Volumes stood at USD 2.8bn in 2025 YTD, down from USD 3bn in 2024, and USD 4.3bn in 2023.

The decline persisted despite some notable secondary follow-ons and convertible deals in 1Q 2025. The country’s equity capital markets have struggled to recover since French President Emmanuel Macron called snap elections last June, triggering political turmoil. Since France elected a hung Parliament last July, political tensions and uncertainty around the country’s credit have lingered.

“Compared to Germany and other key equity capital markets in Europe, such as Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands, France has been more exposed to political instability since the snap elections,” Thomas Le Vert , capital markets partner at White & Case said. “The current geopolitical context is also fuelling volatility, which is not encouraging IPO activity.”

The IPO market in France has been moribund since the listing of Exosens SAS in June 2024. While a pipeline exists, likely candidates include tech firms prioritising profitability, such as Contentsquare, Mirakl, and Doctolib, according to French ECM specialists.

Private equity is expected to drive IPO activity, with sponsors likely to run dual-track processes, an ECM advisor said. However, an ECM banker noted that these processes do not appear imminent.

“We don’t see much activity picking up this year. IPOs will struggle, we may see one or two in 2H, but not too much expected on that front,” the banker said.

Le Vert echoed this sentiment, adding that successful IPOs outside France could pave the way for French listings in 2H 2025–1H 2026.

Follow ons continue to dominate ECM, with USD 2bn issued in France in 2025 YTD, down from USD 2.9bn in 2024 and USD 3.4bn in 2023. The USD 902m ABB block trade of Bureau Veritas SA and the USD 617m rights offer Societe de la Tour Eiffel SA provided much of the volume this year.

“High-valued issuers in growth sectors (defence, engineering, industrial services) are successfully generating ABBs block trades,” Le Vert said. “These deals, executed in a few hours following market close, minimise market risks and remain resilient to volatility.”

Meanwhile, a convertible bonds (CB) in VINCI SA (USD 413m) and Citigroup Global Markets Holdings Inc France’s exchangeable bond in Airbus SE helped the equity-linked market in France recover to USD 806m in issuance, up from USD 217m the year before.