European public-market hopefuls are starting to give up on the dream of New York listings in favour of home comforts, given US President Donald Trump’s mercurial approach to policy.

Several market participants have told ECM Pulse that over the past few weeks, a retreat from US listing plans is becoming an increasingly common theme among IPO-seeking businesses. This is fuelled by uncertainty over US policy and less confidence in the future of US regulation.

“We have plenty of clients who were due to list in the US, a lot of work has gone around that,” an ECM banker said. “Several of our clients are pausing that process, and some are considering whether to redo a lot of their pre-IPO work to pursue a listing in Europe.”

The banker added: “The dynamic we are seeing is that completely new clients are not considering the US at all, and the ones who have publicly said they are going to go and list there, are slowing down that pre-listing work. They haven’t completely abandoned the US yet, but options are being looked at.”

This news service reported this week that there is a transatlantic push and pull going on for the listing of Germany’s TK Elevators.

There are also some other European listing candidates that have been speculated as US IPO hopefuls for some time, like UK fintech firm Revolut. Its CEO Nik Storonsky said that choosing a London listing over a US-one would not be “rational.”

While the company has not communicated any change of plans, several market participants noted that they would be surprised if Revolut was not seriously now considering a London IPO, given increasing political turmoil in the US and its acquiring of a UK banking licence in late 2024.

A spokesperson for Revolut said the company had “nothing to add” when asked about talk over the company possible considering listing venue options.

Source: Dealogic

Fellow UK fintech firm Monzo is reported to be more likely to opt for London despite consideration of a New York IPO.

Another major European firmed tipped to go public soon is Visma and sources told this news service earlier this year that the company would likely favour a European venue over the US.

Policy uncertainty under the Trump administration is a key driver behind some of the reticence of European firms to pursue a US IPO, despite the depth of the American investor base and often more attractive trading multiples, bankers said.

For some European companies, there is possibly a national pride element at play, with the US president being perceived as openly hostile to Europe.

On Friday, Trump mused publicly about imposing 50% tariffs against the European Union (EU). Although these tariffs, originally mooted for June, were subsequently delayed to July on Monday, this once again cements a breakdown in good relations between the US and Europe.

The quick change in direction also highlights the rapid changeability of US policy. Some European countries are becoming more hostile to the US, notably France, where President Emmanuel Macron has urged European companies to pause US investments.

“Companies were excited about the US, and possibly listing there, at the beginning of the year,” added a second banker. “This has totally changed now, and we have seen some starting to push a narrative of European exceptionalism; the momentum has shifted totally towards Europe for European companies. This is all linked to geopolitics.”

London calling

For companies that don’t have a natural home on any of Continental Europe’s major stock exchanges, London was mentioned by all market participants speaking to ECM Pulse as an ideal IPO destination.

“The UK has it all to play for as the coming private-to-public capital cycle hits once the current tariff-induced market turbulence settles,” said Mark Austin, partner at Latham & Watkins. “And, in fact, the US-induced volatility is causing much more interest in Europe, and particularly London, as a listing destination now – the ‘it must be the US’ narrative has disappeared.”

This was also the view of several other ECM bankers speaking to ECM Pulse this week, reflecting strategic conversations with clients.

The first banker noted that clients who had once looked at possible US listing options were working to find good reasons to list in the UK, to take advantage of what remains by far Europe’s most liquid equity capital market.

Austin added that, after years of reform to make UK-listings more attractive, the London Stock Exchange now looked far less frictional than other European exchanges when compared side by side.

“The public narrative has still not always caught up with that reality on the ground,” Austin added. “But this is true across the listing regime, across governance, across remuneration, and of course, we shouldn’t forget that while yes, more needs to be done to drive capital inflows, London is still by far the biggest and most liquid capital market in Europe.”

The fact that London has “the biggest and best follow-on market” will also be a factor for sponsors pondering where to list their portfolio companies, Austin said.

There is still some work to be done for the London Stock Exchange (LSE) to recapture some of its former luster, but after years of reform to make it more attractive as a listing venue, the geopolitical volatility presented by the second Trump administration might just prove the perfect stick to partner the regulatory carrot London has been growing.

“The early conversations we are having with companies seem to indicate a particular boost for London, its very much seen as a neutral North Atlantic venue as part of this substantial thematic shift about European companies not wanting to be listed in the US anymore,” said an ECM investor.

After years of gloom, the future for the LSE is looking a little brighter as US attractiveness wanes.