Heavyweight boxing will be on the minds of many sports fans after Oleksandr Usyk was crowned undisputed champion of the world over the weekend.

Any boxing aficionados who happen to work in equity capital markets (ECM) in Europe will see an immediate connection to the Continent’s post-summer IPO pipeline, which could be characterised by heavyweight issuance.

The first half of the year for IPOs in Europe saw a handful of mid-cap new listings, but none with significant size or scale, as this news service reported last week.

This is set to change from September, when a cohort of larger European deals seek to enter the metaphorical ring.

“The first half was for mid-cap IPOs, and that was very touch-and-go. September feels like it could be busy with lots of public headlines around some large listings,” said an ECM investor.

The final big IPO issuance window of the year will likely be led by the Stockholm IPO of security solutions business Verisure.

Verisure could also be joined by listings for German pharmaceutical business Stada and the Dutch government is reported to be set to decide in September whether to list or sell the German division of TenneT.

Alongside these big names, this column has flagged the listings of ISS STOXX and SMG Swiss Marketplace Group as other deals that investors are looking out for once they return to their desks after their August breaks.

“Everyone has a high expectation for September activity across a number of products, and we have seen real engagement in early looks,” said an ECM banker. “It seems it might be a pivotal moment for the European IPO market.”

All market participants speaking to ECM Pulse noted that September was the first true test of European IPOs this year, after the traditional Easter window was effectively curtailed by US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in April.

If deals in September, and through to 4Q, price well, it’ll act as a marker for the rest of the year and through to 2026.

“There haven’t yet been enough transactions, period, on the IPO front to really give confidence,” said a second banker. “Verisure and ISS Stoxx, for example, are both decent-sized transactions that could act as benchmarks for European investors, assuming market conditions support them.”

But an ECM lawyer noted that the lack of benchmark deals meant an uphill road for IPO issuers.

“Normally, you would get to the summer/post-summer window with an established track record of listings, while what we are seeing this year is a pipeline of very good candidates, and a string of not-so-good deals that have left a lot to be desired,” he said.

“So, you basically have a second half that has to prove itself much more than what we expected, and in one of the most volatile macro environments we’ve encountered in the past few years.”

Best-laid plans

A strong IPO window in Europe will depend on supportive underlying markets, but equities remain highly sensitive to risk, particularly around trade.

US President Trump has laid out various tariffs to be imposed on 1 August, and while the president has delayed these trade penalties already this year, there is a risk that the market might be under-pricing the possibility that tariff volatility returns with a vengeance as it did in April.

According to Bank of America’s most recent global fund manager survey, trade wars remain the biggest perceived “tail risk” for investors.

Even if tariffs aren’t increased, they might still have an impact on sentiment.

“First-half earnings results are going to be meaningful,” said the first banker. “That is where we might start to see some of the tariff shocks come through.

“The IPO market is sensitive to geopolitical tension, particularly on tariffs. We have seen less of a geopolitical impact from other big events, even wars, which, despite the human cost, have had less of an impact on markets.”

Meanwhile, the investor noted that what he feared most was the unknown, with curveballs increasingly likely, given the unpredictability of US President Trump.

“It looks like a great window as long as nothing comes up,” said the investor. “The market is possibly underplaying the risk on tariffs, but I think people have become accustomed to the headline noise, although I think anything that comes as a surprise will always rock sentiment.

“The market seems to have rebased to dealing with a higher level of volatility and, maybe in time, we will get comfortable with IPOs during higher volatility; otherwise it is pens down for the next three years.”

If markets do turn for the worse, then all market participants noted the IPO market would be a likely casualty, although the investor bemoaned the instinct to throw in the towel.

“I think sometimes volatility is used as an excuse rather than a genuine reason [a] deal can’t get done,” the investor added. “At the right price, and the right size, anything can work.”

A quiet first half aside, Europe has not given up hope of finding some champions in the final few months of 2025.