Powered by Mergermarket data, ECM Highlights reviews ECM activity across North America, EMEA and APAC in 2024. All data correct as of December 16, 2024

Global Highlights: M.E.G.A (Making ECM Great Again)

The huge growth in US ECM volumes ensured that 2024 will be remembered as a year of revival for the equity capital markets ahead of the possible tumult of a second Trump administration, starting in 2025.

Falling global inflation, and the start of interest rate easing from major central banks, meant that equity issuers and investors were in a far better mood to deal in 2024, leading to the best year in three for ECM.

There has been around USD 741bn of issuance, as of 16 December, meaning that 2024 global ECM volumes end the year 20% higher than 2023. This is a remarkable result considering a monumental fall in Chinese ECM volumes, in line with a broader economic slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

Fourth quarter volumes of USD 201bn were 45% higher than the same period in 2023, showing a growing desire to deal into the end of the year, as issuers and their advisors took advantage of an uplift in equity indices following a clear result in the US election.

The star of the show for global ECM this year was the Americas, particularly the US. Issuance of USD 366.7bn across the region was up over 56% from 2023; US issuance was up over 60% over last year.

The capacity for equity markets to absorb gargantuan deals was also a key theme of the year.

US volumes were boosted by a mammoth capital raise by Boeing [NYSE:BA] in the fourth quarter that consisted of a USD 18.5bn follow-on and a USD 5.75bn convertible bond deal. Other global large deals this year included a USD 9bn capital raise by National Grid [LON:NG] and a USD 12.5bn share sale in Saudi Aramco [TADAWUL:2222].

The return of the US and European IPOs was also a feature of 2024 but global IPO volumes of USD 123bn were just slightly above USD 122.2bn in 2023. US listings were 67% higher than last year and Europe IPOs were up around 64%.

IPO volumes were also significantly up in the Middle East. Large new listings were a particular theme in EMEA, with six of the top ten IPOs coming from the region, but mid-cap issuers struggled to gain traction, meaning that IPO issuance in the EMEA was 42% higher than 2023.

APAC ECM was down 7.9% in 2024, driven by an 83% fall in China A-Share listings.

The decline in China was somewhat mitigated by the rise of India.

Indian ECM issuance of USD 69.4bn was the best in APAC and the second-best market globally after the US.

Finally, a revival in both Americas and APAC convertible bonds led to USD 127bn of issuance globally, 27% higher than in 2023.

It was also higher than global IPO volumes and marks the first time in a decade where convertible bond issuance outpaced new listings.

With a strong equity market rally following the US presidential election and the re-election of former president Donald Trump, there are hopes that this will lead to even better days in 2025 for ECM.

But market participants will have some concern over the protectionist rhetoric of the president-elect and whether this might lead to global trade hostilities, which then act as a damper on an otherwise robust backdrop for global ECM.

Issuance in 2025 is going to depend on what kind of administration new US President Donald Trump wishes to lead.

If Trump repeats the tax-cutting, pro-business policies of the first year of his last administration, it will likely be a boon for global ECM. In 2017, global volumes grew by 20% from 2016.

However, a US universal tariff regime that disrupts global business and prompts an international trade war, as proposed by Trump during the campaign, will undoubtedly harm markets as President Trump’s trade hostility with China did during the second year of his first term.

Global ECM volumes declined 15% Y-O-Y in 2018 from 2017, due to increasing trade hostility between China and the US.

“This year, we saw some improvement in the IPO markets, but definitely not a broad reopening. The secondary overnight market continued to work particularly well,” said Andrew Briscoe Head of EMEA ECM Syndicate at Bank of America. “Next year things are expected to continue to improve a bit more. Not a sea change, but an incremental one.

“It is encouraging. There is still a long way before the IPO market is fully open. We need to see what President-elect Trump and his team will do, and particularly what this means for Europe when it comes to trade.”